Rookie tight ends often struggle to produce in their debut seasons. Performances like Evan Engram's 2017 campaign are hard to come by, but Hayden Hurst has a legitimate chance of breaking out in his inaugural year in the NFL.
Dating back to 2011, Baltimore Ravens tight ends have averaged a 20.91% share of the team’s total targets, while the team itself has averaged 631.43 pass attempts per season. This averages out to 131.07 targets to their tight ends each season. For comparison, Ravens tight ends have experienced a similar target volume to tight ends on the Patriots (138 looks in 2017), Chiefs (157) and the Eagles (134).
Adding to the historical tight end target share data is a Ravens roster that leads the league in missing targets (332) and air yards (2,829) from the 2017 season. The Ravens parted ways with Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, Benjamin Watson and Mike Campanaro this offseason -- pretty much everyone that caught passes for them last year.
To replace them, the team signed veterans Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. Each of those receivers have had productive seasons in the past, but the total upheaval to the team’s receiving corps leaves plenty of opportunity on the table for the taking.
That’s where Hurst comes in. Watson’s departure left the team’s tight end depth chart wide open. Hurst, a 2018 first-rounder, has already been filling in as the starting tight end in the preseason, catching four passes and recording a touchdown while logging playing time with both starter Joe Flacco and fellow first-round rookie Lamar Jackson. As a 26-year-old rookie, it's possible Hurst is more polished and NFL-ready than the typical rookie tight end.
At his current 14th-round ADP, Hurst has an ideal combination of opportunity and a basement-bin price. --Aidan McGrath