| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Houston Texans | -1.45 | 0-3 | 12.4% | 17 | 23 | -2 |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | -1.38 | 1-2 | 18.5% | 29 | 13 | -5 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.59 | 2-1 | 27.5% | 4 | 26 | -2 |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | -0.58 | 3-0 | 61.6% | 15 | 4 | +5 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | -0.33 | 1-1-1 | 28.5% | 27 | 2 | +7 |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | -0.02 | 1-2 | 33.6% | 6 | 30 | -2 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.27 | 2-1 | 45.1% | 7 | 17 | -3 |
| 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.39 | 3-0 | 68.5% | 1 | 32 | +6 |
| 14 | New York Jets | 0.5 | 1-2 | 13.9% | 28 | 3 | -3 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 0.56 | 2-1 | 46.9% | 24 | 5 | 1 |
You probably won't find the Chiefs ranked so low at many other places on the internet, but our model isn't ready to fully buy in because of that defense. Yes, Mahomes has looked amazing, but so have the other three quarterbacks in their games. The second-year pro leads the league in Passing NEP per dropback, with 0.61, while the Chiefs have allowed 0.30. After adjusting for opponent, only the Saints' pass defense has been worse.
The most important factors to winning in the NFL are passing and stopping the pass, and as of now, the Chiefs only have one of those two things down. As is the case in Green Bay, it is not hard to see Kansas City's defensive struggles continuing, as the Chiefs finished last season 24th in our defensive rankings and tied for 26th in yards allowed per play.
As good as Mahomes has been, it is harder to be as confident he will continue to light up the league, given we only have a 3-game, 93-pass sample telling us he is a world-beater. His 13:0 touchdown to interception ratio is certain to regress, and we do not have a large enough sample to put a ton of stock in his 9.6 yards per pass average either (research suggests it takes about 400 passes before we can say yards per attempt is measuring more skill than random variation).
As for the Chiefs' 3-0 brethren in Miami, the Dolphins have certainly taken care of their business, as their +23 point differential is fourth-best in the NFL. To be fair, it's only three games on the heals of a mediocre 2017 and it has come against less-than-stellar competition (the Titans, Jets and Raiders), but Miami fans will surely take it.