| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Buffalo Bills | -8.64 | 1-2 | 4.8% | 32 | 16 | 0 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -6.67 | 0-3 | 1.1% | 31 | 24 | 0 |
| 30 | Oakland Raiders | -5.49 | 0-3 | 3.5% | 14 | 29 | 0 |
| 29 | Indianapolis Colts | -4.6 | 1-2 | 22.1% | 22 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 | Denver Broncos | -3.1 | 2-1 | 28.1% | 18 | 19 | -6 |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | -3.01 | 2-1 | 32.9% | 30 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.69 | 1-2 | 16.3% | 13 | 28 | -4 |
| 25 | New York Giants | -2.16 | 1-2 | 14.4% | 20 | 15 | +1 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -2.15 | 1-2 | 26.5% | 26 | 18 | +4 |
| 23 | Green Bay Packers | -2.06 | 1-1-1 | 22.8% | 23 | 25 | -6 |
The good news in Buffalo was that the Buffalo Bills' nERD rating improved by 2.3 points over the weekend, which is more than any team in the league. The bad news is that they were starting from such a low place that they are still comfortably in the cellar.
The Packers are at the other end of the spectrum. After losing 31-17 in Washington, their rating fell by 2.5 points, which was the second-biggest drop of the week (behind New England). They also fell six spots in the rankings, which tied Denver for the largest downward movement.
Green Bay has hardly impressed on either side of the ball, as even Aaron Rodgers has struggled. The all-world signal caller is just 16th in passing Net Expected Points per dropback and 24th in Success Rate (you can read more about NEP and Success Rate in our glossary).
Given his track record, we can safely assume he will improve going forward, but it is harder to say the same about a defense that is struggling after also ranking 24th in yards per play and 23rd in NEP last year.