Like I said -- things are really ugly at quarterback this week. Brock Osweiler kind of ugly.

We can't entirely discount what Osweiler showed us in his first 25 career starts -- throwing nearly as many interceptions (27) as touchdowns (30) while posting an egregious 4.89 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A). But in three games (two starts) with the Miami Dolphins this year, Osweiler is looking completely different.

He has completed 67.5% of his passes (compared to 59.2% in his first three seasons as a starter), and while his 2.5% interception rate isn't far off from the 2.8% he posted in that earlier sample, his touchdown rate is way up to 7.5%. That's not necessarily a sustainable mark, but with that high completion percentage, it hasn't been only touchdowns keeping him afloat. He's averaging 7.86 ANY/A, and among that 38-quarterback sample I mentioned for Keenum, Osweiler ranks 5th in Passing NEP per drop back.

This has translated to some serious fantasy production, with 26.0 and 17.8 fantasy points in his two starts.

The 'Phins do find themselves as 7.5-point underdogs on the road this week, which is not generally a situation conducive to fantasy goodness, but they are up against a one-dimensional Houston Texans defense, which our models have ranked 1st against the run but only 27th against the pass.