Chalk
There are some massive scoring totals projected on Sunday's main slate, with four games sporting over/unders greater than 50 points. That makes for some tasty quarterbacks in place for this week.
In peeping our heat map, it's no surprise that the Los Angeles Rams have the highest implied team total of the day (33.0 points), which once again makes Jared Goff ($8,500) an obvious choice. As 9.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers, who have the 23rd-ranked pass defense per our metrics, Goff and his projected 24.1 FanDuel points should be a popular play.
Not to be outdone, Patrick Mahomes ($9,200) is projected for 25.2 FanDuel points, tops on the main slate. He faces a stingy Denver Broncos pass defense (third by our metrics), but given his 28.0 FanDuel point-per-game (FPPG) average this year, and a season-high 38.84 output in Week 2, he should draw plenty of ownership.
As a bit of a cheaper salary-saving option, Andy Dalton ($7,800) faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense that's allowed a league-leading 27.3 FPPG to opposing signal-callers, so expect him to be a bit chalky.
Pivot
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: $8,400 (vs Cleveland Browns)
Facing the top-ranked Cleveland Browns pass defense, per our metrics, Ben Roethlisberger could be easily avoided with so many juicy matchups mentioned above. But for a sneaky pivot, Big Ben may not be a bad play, especially since we get him in the friendly confines of Heinz Field:
In looking at the RotoViz Game Splits App, it's obvious that Roethlisberger has fared far better at home. He's improved his passing yards by an average of nearly 22 per game, along with tossing in an extra touchdown per contest.
In addition, the Browns defense, as strong as they've been, have faltered a bit at times in 2018. They were carved up by Derek Carr for 437 passing yards and 4 scores in Week 4, and then were blasted two weeks later by Philip Rivers for 38 points, including 2 long Tyrell Williams touchdown grabs.
We have Roethlisberger pegged for 20.8 FanDuel points this week with upside for 35.9. This type of upside coupled with a lot of eyes on other quarterbacks makes him a very worthwhile pivot in tournaments, especially if the Steelers can showcase their home offensive fireworks from the past.