Chalk
As massive favorites against the Packers, who are rank 24th against the run, fantasy's leading scorer Todd Gurley remains an every week start if you can afford him at $11,000. Gurley is now averaging 27.7 FPPG and really just becomes a question of whether you can roster him or not due to the hefty salary.
After teeing off last week, Marlon Mack ($6,700) is going to be a heavily-owned option if he can suit up. Mack bombed the Buffalo Bills for 159 all-purpose yards, but keep an eye out on his injury situation.
Finally, Adrian Peterson ($7,000) could be in line for a big week, and we have him projected for 13.1 FanDuel points. He faces a New York Giants running defense that ranks 20th per our metrics, and they have been susceptible to the big game this year, shredded by Alvin Kamara in Week 4 (19 carries, 134 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns).
Pivot
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers: $5,600 (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Arizona Cardinals rushing defense has been tattooed on the ground this season, especially as of late. In a Week 7 Thursday Night Football loss, Phillip Lindsay carved them up for 90 rushing yards and a score, and Latavius Murray blasted them the week prior for 155 rush yards and a touchdown.
The San Francisco 49ers' rushing attack has been all over the place, thanks to offseason signee Jerick McKinnon tearing his ACL, and current starter Matt Breida, who has performed well, has missed the last two days of practice with an ankle injury.
All of that adds up to a potentially explosive week for Raheem Mostert, who could be in line for the majority of running back work with Breida out. Stepping into a pinch-hit role last week, Mostert filled in nicely, grabbing 11 touches for 78 all-purpose yards.
We have Mostert projected for 6.5 FanDuel points this week. While that may seem low, if Breida is officially ruled out, that point total has the potential to skyrocket. In addition to that, our models have his tournament upside at 18.2, providing a very nice 3.2X value. To save a bit at the running back slot and pivot off of the heavy hitters, take a long look at Mostert.