Over/Under: 53.0

Chiefs Implied Team Total: 29.75
Ravens Implied Team Total: 23.25

This game should provide an interesting case study for the #DefenseDoesn'tMatter movement. Per numberFire's Net Expected Points model, the Baltimore Ravens defense ranks as the best in the entire league, grading out first against the pass and fifth against the run. Per the same NEP model, the Kansas City Chiefs offense also ranks first, similarly ranking first in passing and seventh in rushing. Considering this game is in Arrowhead, I'm still betting on the Chiefs to put up points here, which aligns well with the line at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $8,000

Some may see Travis Kelce's price and scoff, but it's more than deserved. Kelce is averaging 16.64 fantasy points per game, which is best among tight ends and would rank him as the WR6 on the season. Yet this price, up just $200, is closer to being the WR8 this week, so if anything he's under-priced by a few hundred bucks. While this may seem like a recency bias play, and Kelce's ownership will certainly be elevated, this is all about matchup. Allowing the 2nd-fewest FanDuel points per game to wide receivers but the 11th-most points per game to tight ends, Baltimore is a tight end-funnel defense worth attacking with the best tight end in the game.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Price: $7,500

Through three career starts, Lamar Jackson is averaging 18.54 points per game, displaying a nice floor propped up by his legs. He's yet to display the ceiling we're salivating for, but this might finally be the week he's forced to kick it up a notch. Playing a ball-control offensive style supported by an elite defense, the Ravens have allowed just 18.0points per game across Jackson's three starts. That will be hard to replicate against a Chiefs offense averaging 33.8 points per game at home this year.

This script should force Jackson to throw more against a Chiefs defense allowing the fifth-most points per game to quarterbacks despite having faced Blake Bortles, Josh Rosen, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr and Case Keenum (twice) this season. Not an ideal cash-game recommendation given the negative script and tough road conditions, Jackson still makes for an exciting tournament option. While Kansas City has permitted the second-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this year, Bortles was the only legitimate rushing option they've faced all season.

Others to Consider

Despite another scintillating performance, FanDuel dropped Patrick Mahomes' price down $200 to $9,300. Slightly discounted with projected lower ownership, this could be the best spot to pay up for Mahomes all season. He is more than good enough to win in this matchup.

Pairing Mahomes with Tyreek Hill ($8,200) makes sense as a high-priced GPP stack. Similar to Mahomes, Hill's price is down $200 and his ownership will be much lower in a brutal matchup. But also similar to Mahomes, we should be betting on Hill's talent and high team total at home in projected low ownership. Nobody is truly capable of covering TyFreak and his speed.

Chris Conley ($4,700) again caught a touchdown last week, but more importantly he saw seven targets. Ultimately, it's tough to evaluate Conley or Sammy Watkins ($6,000) until we know the status of Watkins' health. If he can't go, Conley is nothing more than a GPP dart attached to a high team total.

Spencer Ware's price jumped $1,200 up to $6,400 this week. While that's probably still too cheap for the lead back in arguably the league's best offense, Baltimore's fifth-ranked run defense provides a substantial test. Still a home favorite attached to a high team total, Ware is a better tournament play at low ownership rather than a cash lock.

Damien Williams ($5,100) mixed in for seven touches on 26.8% of the offensive snaps. Kansas City signed former Chief Charcandrick West (not listed), likely due to his familiarity with Andy Reid's offense, and he projects similarly to Williams. Regardless, as seven-point home favorites, this isn't the week to chase Kansas City's receiving backs. The Kansas City D/ST ($3,700) deserves cash game consideration going as a touchdown home favorite playing against a rookie rushing quarterback.

Ty Montgomery ($5,400) might just be the most bankable pass-catcher on the Ravens right now, and projected negative game script perfectly fits his role. Montgomery played 33.75% of the snaps last week despite Baltimore playing in neutral to positive script throughout. That number could easily hit closer to 50% this week in a great matchup; Kansas City has allowed 64 more running back receiving yards than any team in the league.

The rest of the Ravens side gets messy, unfortunate in a potential high-scoring game. Everyone loves Gus The Bus Edwards ($6,400), who again had 20+ touches last week, but that was in a largely positive script. While the matchup is juicy on the ground, it doesn't make sense to target Edwards as a seven-point road underdog considering he's yet to catch a pass this season. Kenneth Dixon ($5,300) mixed in for nine touches last week and his workload is worth monitoring moving forward.

We're left throwing darts with the Ravens' remaining pass catchers. Michael Crabtree ($5,200) caught a touchdown last week and has a 20% target market share across Jackson's three starts. Willie Snead ($4,700) has the toughest matchup in the slot and just three targets across the last two games. Deep threat John Brown ($4,600) is the cheapest and deserves GPP punt consideration. He was open for a long touchdown last week and Kansas City has given up a league-high 55 completions of 20+ yards this year.

Mark Andrews ($4,800) is priced too high for someone with an 8% target market share with Jackson.