Over/Under: 55.5
Saints Implied Team Total: 31.75
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 23.75
The New Orleans Saints will have 10 days to rest and gameplan after their shocking loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Thursday night. Call me crazy, but even on the road I'm comfortable betting on a bounce-back from the league's second-best offense, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points model. Coming off the down performance in an island game, with prices slightly reduced, this is an ideal spot to utilize the Saints' premium players.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $8,300
As alluded to above, coming off a disappointing performance and in a great matchup, this is one of the best opportunities to target Saints playmakers like Michael Thomas. His price is down $500 from two weeks ago, despite getting a defense that allows the second-most FanDuel points per game to receivers. Thomas ripped the Bucs for 16 catches, 180 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. In easily the highest-totaled game on the slate, it's not unreasonable to think he can get close to matching those numbers again. Tampa Bay's already thin secondary is even more banged up at the moment.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $5,600
Once we found out DeSean Jackson was out last week, Chris Godwin became an easy cash-game play, and he more than delivered with 101 yards and a touchdown. If Jackson is once again out with a thumb injury, Godwin becomes a must-play in all formats considering his price has increased by only $200. New Orleans is an extremely attack-able matchup, while Godwin may benefit even more from Marshon Lattimore likely shadowing Mike Evans.
Others to Consider
Again, this feels like a great week to pay up for Drew Brees ($8,500) and/or Alvin Kamara ($8,300) at slightly reduced prices and potentially reduced ownership. It feels like nothing more than variance that most of Brees' recent touchdowns have gone to random no-name receivers. Instead of assuming it's a trend, I'd rather bet on Kamara and Thomas catching Brees' touchdowns here. Based on points per game, Tampa is a top-five matchup for both quarterbacks and running backs.
Tre'Quan Smith ($5,700) remains in play as a low-floor GPP dart attached to a strong team total, but he's only produced at home this year. The only other Saint to consider is Mark Ingram ($6,600) considering New Orleans enters as eight-point favorites. But last week served us a reminder that Ingram's floor is too low for cash given how little he'll play if the script goes awry. There are better plays in his price range, such as Lamar Miller ($6,500), Austin Ekeler ($6,700) and Sony Michel ($6,900).
Jameis Winston's ($7,700) price hasn't increased much despite back-to-back 23-point performances. The Saints defense has improved but is still an attackable matchup. It feels like Winston's leash is much longer coming off back-to-back ones, the second of which was an impressive victory against division-rival Carolina. Jameis is running more than ever before, averaging 39 rushing yards per game when he's able to play the entire four quarters. For reference, Cam Newton averages 37.5 rushing yards per game. Reasonably-priced and at home in a good matchup that may shoot out, Jameis is a strong cash game option with tournament upside.
Mike Evans ($7,700) is coming off a down game, which is the perfect time to target his ceiling in GPPs, especially at a reasonable price. Evans hung 147 yards and a touchdown on Marshon Lattimore and company in Week 1's version of this matchup. Still, with under 10 points in 5 different games this year, Evans isn't a comfortable cash option.
I'd rather play Adam Humphries ($6,500) in cash. By points per game, Humphries is the WR16 since Week 8. He is also playing a full complement of snaps and has a juicy matchup in the slot where the Saints are most vulnerable.
Peyton Barber ($5,800) doesn't project to have a bankable workload as an eight-point underdog, while none of the other backfield options should entice you. Cameron Brate ($5,100) is a tough sell against one of the league's best tight end defenses.