DraftKings Price: $4,600
Projected Points: 10.48
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.28
The Chicago Bears are set to play in the Wild Card weekend's only game not projected to be within a field goal, at least according to the oddsmakers. In fact, they opened as 4.5-point favorites and have moved to 6.0 points, a notable shift in the betting markets. As such, the Bears are expected to control this game throughout, which should bode well for the game-flow dependent Jordan Howard.
The former fantasy RB1 has been largely inefficient and ineffective for fantasy purposes this season. The Chicago run game has seemingly turned the corner with Howard running the show as of late though. Since Thanksgiving (Week 12), Howard’s average Success Rate is 5.6 points higher (43.1%) than the first 12 weeks (37.5%).
Howard’s racked up 399 rush yards on a 4.5-yards-per-carry clip since Turkey day, comparative to his abysmal 3.3 prior. With hardly any changes to his volume, Howard’s improvement could be due to coaching change. The Bears’ have altered their game plans to fit a schematic change more suitable for Howards’ running style -- an increase in zone concepts which Howard thrived on in year’s past. We could be seeing the Howard of old here, just in time for the playoffs.
Howard also carries high touchdown equity among this slate of running backs. His prospects are boosted by the fact that he is the primary red zone back in his offense. Among all Wild Card backs, he’s fourth in red zone rush attempts, with 34. Ahead of him are Ezekiel Elliott, Chris Carson, and Marlon Mack -- all priced above $6,000. The Chicago Bear is a considerable discount off those backs.
Prior to the Philadelphia Eagles' three-game winning streak to close out the season, they were getting trampled by opposing running backs on the ground. From Weeks 10 through 15, they allowed four of the six opposing backs run for over 100 yards. One of the two to fail was Adrian Peterson, who was two yards short of hitting the mark. By being able to play from ahead during the final three games, the defense’s primary concern was defending the pass. With the current spread though, Howard should be playing ahead for most of the game and will have favorable odds to hit the yardage bonus.
With better projected volume than the other backs priced in his area, Howard seems to stand out, as he's a candidate for scores not to mention the yardage bonus on DraftKings.