The story with Aaron Jones has some common threads with that of Henry: yes, he was the team's most efficient runner, but the passing game also got a boost when he was on the field.
Let's start with the basics and check out what Jones did as a runner. His most direct threat to playing time in 2019 -- if nobody else is brought in -- would be Jamaal Williams. Assuming the Green Bay Packers prefer to score points, Jones should get to handle the bulk of the rushing volume.
| In 2018 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 133 | 0.15 | 50.4% |
| Jamaal Williams | 121 | -0.05 | 41.2% |
Williams' Success Rate was roughly the league average, so in a vacuum, his numbers aren't terrible. But with Jones ranking fourth in Rushing NEP per carry and second in Success Rate, Williams' stats lose all their luster.
But, as you likely know, that didn't immediately lead to playing time for Jones. Head coach Mike McCarthy said in October that, "(T)here's more to playing the position than just running the football." That is very much true, and running backs who are a negative in the passing game likely should have their playing time scaled back because of the importance of efficiency in that aspect of the game.
But if Jones struggled to help the passing game, the numbers don't reflect it.
When Jones was on the field, the Packers averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt, according to The Quant Edge. When he was off the field, that fell to 6.9 yards per attempt. And if you're worried about pass blocking, their sack rate with Jones on the field (7.4%) was lower than when he was off (7.8%), so it's a big ol' swing and a miss there, too.
To put it simply, the Packers were a better football team with Jones on the field. Jones would have a massive ceiling in fantasy if he were to be the team's workhorse alongside a quarterback as efficient as Aaron Rodgers.
The one catch here is that Jones' new head coach is Matt LaFleur. It was LaFleur who limited Henry's playing time as the Titans' offensive coordinator last year. He did eventually right this wrong and expand Henry's role, but it wasn't until Week 15 that Henry's snap rate finally got above 55%. We can't simply assume LaFleur will commit to a back based on talent.
With that said, Jones' price this offseason should reflect that. There is some risk to his profile, and that could put a bit of a lid on how high he'll go in drafts. The ceiling of a back tied to a Rodgers-led offense is that of a first-round pick, so as long as you can stomach the aforementioned risks, Jones is very much worthy of your attention.