Given how well Joe Mixon performed at the end of 2018 when the rest of the Cincinnati Bengals were limping to injured reserve, he's not going to be cheap this offseason. We just have to look at his numbers to see if he's worth the cost. An initial look says he very well could be.
When Mixon was healthy, he carried the load this past season. Even with some big time volume, he still managed to leave Giovani Bernard in the dust.
| In 2018 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 237 | 0.04 | 42.6% |
| Giovani Bernard | 56 | -0.05 | 33.9% |
Mixon used this efficiency to hold a super steady yardage floor for most of the season. He topped 100 rushing yards 4 times and had at least 80 in 9 of 14 games, including 5 of the final 6. This was absolutely a breakout year for Mixon.
Bernard still has one year left on his deal, so he figures to be back in 2019, but it wouldn't be surprising if Mixon were to get a full workhorse-esque load from the jump.
The big concern around Mixon likely revolves around the offense in general. The Bengals fell flat down the stretch, losing seven of their final eight games. We want to tie our running backs to teams that will have leads so that they can get volume through the fourth quarter, and the second-half version of the 2018 Bengals wasn't doing that often.
As with the Jaguars, though, the Bengals may have been dragged down by a rash of injuries. Not only did A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Andy Dalton miss the end of the year, but rookie center Billy Price missed six games, and left tackle Cordy Glenn missed three. The Bengals had essentially just two games all year in which both Price and Green were healthy, and they scored 34 points against the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens in those two. This offense could easily beat expectations.
Of the backs we've discussed so far, Mixon seems likely to be the most expensive, so it's not as if he'll come at some major discount. But he's another player who could be a big-time workhorse in a respectable offense, and you won't be able to find many of those players outside of the first round after the running-back explosion we saw in 2018.
What this does mean with Mixon, though, is that you'll have to take him over some of the top receivers in the game, which is a tough thing to do if you have concerns around the offense. Based on what we saw from Mixon in 2018, though, and assuming the Bengals' health stabilizes next year, it does seem as if Mixon is worth that opportunity cost.