The Jacksonville Jaguars are why studies like this are necessary. Once you take sacks out of the equation, Blake Bortles ranked 40th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks in Passing NEP per attempt, and Cody Kessler was 38th. As such, everybody tied to them is going to look horrendous.
Once you toss in some context, though, Dede Westbrook does seem to stand out.
Four Jaguars receivers had more than 30 targets this season; Westbrook and Donte Moncrief were the only two to finish with positive Target NEP marks.
| In 2018 | Targets | Target NEP | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 102 | 27.19 | 0.27 |
| Donte Moncrief | 89 | 11.88 | 0.13 |
| Keelan Cole | 70 | -0.45 | -0.01 |
| D.J. Chark | 32 | -14.48 | -0.45 |
Westbrook was twice as efficient as Moncrief on a per-target basis despite catching passes from the same guys, and Moncrief was a far cry beyond the rest of the group. This would seem to indicate that Westbrook was just a better player.
Moncrief is an impending free agent, which should partially offset the return of Marqise Lee from a torn ACL. Westbrook may be able to duplicate the 25.7% target market share he had over the second half of the season, which would at least give him a floor in fantasy.
The ceiling would come from any upgrades the Jaguars would make at quarterback. They figure to have options -- whether via the draft or free agency -- inspiring some optimism that the offense could be less of a dud next year. If that does happen, Westbrook's draft value would likely shoot up.
As it stands right now, you don't need to make that assumption to justify drafting Westbrook. He's going at pick 128.30 on DRAFT, meaning he's among a bunch of players with either shaky market shares or bad offenses. Because of this, Westbrook stands out as a value option with solid upside now, and he could look even rosier if the team makes some slight tweaks.