The Buffalo Bills are going to add wide receivers this offseason. It would be negligent of them not to if they want Josh Allen to succeed.
Even if we assume that happens, though, Robert Foster may have done enough to earn playing time alongside the new cast.
With Foster, we're going to be playing with small sample sizes as he finished with just 42 targets. And his metrics will be aided by the fact that most of his volume was deep down the field. But even when we account for that, things still look pretty solid for him.
On his 42 targets, Foster added 32.56 Target NEP. The rest of the team's wide receivers offered the bizarro world version of that.
| In 2018 | Targets | Target NEP | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 42 | 32.56 | 0.78 |
| Rest of Bills' WRs | 247 | -30.15 | -0.12 |
A lot of this was influenced by Kelvin Benjamin taking a chainsaw to any hopes at efficiency. But even Zay Jones and Isaiah McKenzie were at 0.09 and 0.11 Target NEP per target, respectively. Foster blew them out of the water.
As you know, this is in part because Allen's one specialty is the deep ball, meaning that Foster's downfield abilities likely skewed things in his favor. As such, it's worthwhile to zero in on just what happened on balls thrown at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| On Deep Throws | Targets | Target NEP | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 22 | 20.67 | 0.94 |
| Rest of Bills' WRs | 83 | -4.86 | -0.06 |
Once again, Jones was fine here, sitting at 0.48 target NEP per target, but he couldn't really come close to Foster.
Among 54 receivers to get at least 20 deep targets this year, Foster ranked 14th in Target NEP per target, grading out as an above-average asset. Based on this, you would think that Foster would still have a role in the offense next year even if the team does make additions.
It also helps Foster that this year's crop of free-agent wide receivers isn't overflowing with talent. As such, Foster's main competition for targets could wind up being Jones and an incoming rookie. If that's the case, Foster's weekly ceiling figures to remain strong.
Because Foster's game is going to be inherently volatile, his best format is a best-ball league, where you don't have to guess when he'll pop off. This would also safeguard you a bit from the games where the Bills get a lead and just pound the ground game (Allen topped 30 pass attempts just five times all season). Even in that format, the cost for Foster is still low as he is going one spot behind Westbrook on DRAFT.
This Bills offense likely isn't going to be an efficient one based on the way Allen played both in college and during his rookie season. That doesn't necessarily prohibit it from being one that gives us some fantasy delight, though. With the big-play abilities Foster showed this past season, it's not a bad idea to test the waters on either him or Jones as we transition into Allen's second year at the helm.