ADP: 200th (QB25)

Marcus Mariota's value has absolutely cratered over the past 24 months. After finishing as the QB13 in 2016, Mariota was the 66th overall player (QB6) the following spring. The masses were expecting him to be one of the top-tier fantasy quarterbacks for the foreseeable future.

It hasn't happened.

As a result, two years later, Mariota is 200th overall, per DLF's January ADP.

Obviously, Mariota didn't produce well in 2017 and 2018, which is why his stock has tanked. But some of that can be explained, and the market may be overreacting.

Let's start with 2017. Mariota slogged his way to a QB18 finish, tossing a mere 13 touchdowns and salvaging a respectable fantasy year by rushing for 5 scores. But Mariota's passing output was bogged down by a meager 2.9% touchdown rate, which checked in 27th among the 32 signal callers who led their team in pass attempts in 2017. That 2.9% mark paled in comparison to the 5.1% and 5.8% touchdown rates he posted in his first two seasons.

So while Mariota wasn't great in 2017, he was a little unlucky, as well.

Then, this past season, he spent most of the year banged up with elbow and shoulder injuries to his throwing arm. That's a problem for any quarterback, and those ailments likely played a part in what was another underwhelming season as Mariota struggled to a QB24 season.

We can't just write off the last two years; those happened and we need to account for it. The market certainly has, with the Mariota bandwagon really thinning out as he's dropped more than 100 spots in overall ADP over the past 12 months.

That opens up a nice buying window on a former number-two overall pick who is heading into his age-26 season. If he stays healthy and gets some positive touchdown regression, Mariota could get back to his higher-end QB2 ways in 2019, and you can get him on the cheap this offseason.