Everybody loves Jameis Winston's upside, right? Wrong.

There are plenty of reasons to doubt what Winston can do as a rookie, and our algorithms are significantly lower on him than the fantasy football drafting community.

Winston currently has an ADP of QB16, but he's expected to finish as just the 26th-best fantasy signal caller. Our algorithms project Winston for 3,311.7 yards and a pretty bad touchdown to interception ratio (17.4 touchdowns and 14.1 touchdowns). And he isn't expected to add too much on the ground either, just 206.1 yards and 1.7 touchdowns.

Winston's top player comparable (found on his player page) is David Carr from the 2004 season. He draws a 98.33% similarity score based on statistics and team composition. That was Carr's best fantasy football finish as the QB14 (with 3,531 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions). However, that's a pedestrian line in 2015, and that's a big reason why Winston grades out poorly in expected fantasy production.