Derek Carr doesn't find his brother in his top five player comparisons, but the top name is just as worrisome: Rex Grossman.

Carr owns a 97.88% similarity to Grossman's 2006 season, when Grossman played 16 games, threw for 3,193 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. That was his top fantasy season, earning him a rank of QB18 by year's end.

Carr is projected to finish as the 27th-best fantasy quarterback and to throw about as many interceptions (18.4) as touchdowns (19.0) this season.

While the Oakland Raiders may be optimistic about Carr's potential this season, the math just clearly isn't. According to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which quantifies a player's production relative to historical expectation level and indicates how many points above or below average a player adds to his team, Carr was the second-worst quarterback in the league last season.

On 622 drop backs last year, Carr tallied a Passing NEP of -40.94, which means he lost nearly six touchdowns and extra points for the Raiders that an average quarterback would have secured.