The Player
It's easy to look at a player like Alfred Blue and just see a plodding backup who may have fill in value if called upon. But that would be underselling the type of athlete he is -- smooth and powerful for his size with good hands and enough speed to get downfield.
While his rookie season was underwhelming, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry on his 169 carries, it's fair to assert that many good rookie backs struggle to transition to the NFL right away as they learn to adjust to the speed of defenses and understand how they can use their ability to gain an advantage. You can't just dominate defenders the way you could in college.
The difficult transition caused Blue to post a Rushing NEP per rush of -0.12, tied for fifth worst in the NFL for backs with more than 100 carries. For comparisons sake, he had a very similar season in terms of efficiency to Darren McFadden.
Athletically, however, Blue is a similar type of runner to some very successful NFL backs:
| Name | Hght | Wght | 40 yd | Bnch | Vert | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 6' 1" | 226 | 4.61 | 22 | 36" | 117" |
| Rashad Jennings | 6' 1" | 231 | 4.59 | 29 | 34" | 120" |
| Anthony Thomas | 6' 2" | 229 | 4.58 | 20 | 32½" | |
| Alfred Blue | 6' 2" | 223 | 4.63 | 13 | 32" | 121" |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6' 1" | 230 | 4.6 | 24 | 31½" | 118" |
| Jeremy Hill | 6' 1" | 233 | 4.66 | 20 | 29" | 113" |
| Arian Foster | 6' 1" | 226 | 4.68 | 23 | 32" | 115" |
| Larry Johnson | 6' 1" | 228 | 4.55 | 19 |
The good thing is that posting a poor score isn't always indicative of future success. Marshawn Lynch had a similar season to Blue in 2010, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry (-0.17 Rushing NEP per rush) in his first year with the Seahawks.
Ladainian Tomlinson posted a -0.12 score and just 3.6 yards per carry his rookie season, albiet at a much larger workload, and his career turned out alright, I guess.
Even the great Le'Veon Bell, who compares athletically to Blue, had a -0.06 Rushing NEP per rush score his rookie season and averaged only 3.5 yards per carry.
The point is that the transition to a new offense and a new level of competition can be disruptive to a players true ability, and sometimes it just takes time for a player to realize their potential. Of course, Blue will likely never be the player that Bell is, but we shouldn't underestimate his ceiling based on a difficult rookie season.
The Opportunity
Arian Foster is a fantastic running back, but he has always battled injuries dating back to his college days at Tennessee. He missed eight games in 2013 and three in each of the 2011 and 2014 seasons. And for a player turning 29 in August who has recurring back issues, knowing who the "handcuff" player is on the roster becomes even more important for fantasy owners.
Enter Alfred Blue. In the games Foster missed last season, Blue averaged 21 carries per game, including a 36 carry effort in week 11. With no consistency under center, the Texans were comfortable letting their running game carry them, even with Blue struggling to find space against a stacked box.
Should Foster miss time in 2015, Blue could be a line for a significant workload, depending on how the backup running back role shapes up (Chris Polk is also in the mix). Improved efficiency and understanding of the blocking schemes and playbook can only help as he takes on that role, and he is a player I would love to have at the end of my bench in both redraft and dynasty leagues, especially if I own Arian Foster.