The Player
The 5’8’’, 217-pound Robinson was a dominant cog in the Mississippi State Bulldogs’ rushing attack in 2014, rushing for 1,203 yards on only 190 carries (6.3 yards per carry) and scoring 11 touchdowns. Watch him play against SEC competition like Kentucky or LSU and you will see a player who just refuses to be tackled, running through, around, and past NFL competition on a consistent basis.
With a running style that mirrors the Maurice Jones Drew “bowling ball” style that wears defenses out, Robinson ranked second in Pro Football Focus’ “Elusive Rating” among draft-eligible players, ranking just behind Todd Gurley in yards after contact. He forced 58 missed tackles and showed a consistent ability to break long runs against top competition, despite subpar long speed.
Robinson also proved to be a great receiver out of the backfield, securing 28 of his 39 targets and averaging 13.2 yards per reception, higher totals than a 2013 Todd Gurley (11.9), Duke Johnson (11.1) and Melvin Gordon (8.1). While not a massive part of the passing attack at Mississippi State, Robinson was a reliable if not explosive receiver in their system and demonstrated the ability to be a very good feature NFL back.
And then he went to the NFL combine.
A 4.7-second 40-yard dash time quickly had scouts and analysts pegging him as not athletic enough to be a productive NFL player, causing him to drop to the sixth round of the NFL draft and into the laps of a powerful NFL offense. While his 40 time wasn’t impressive, his production and ability to break tackles at an exceptional level in a power conference is. He did improve his 40 time to 4.65 at his pro day, but his measurables aren’t why you draft him. You draft him because he’s the type of player that teammates respect, opponents hate and fans root for.
Robinson is going to run harder than anyone else on the team. He's going to frustrate defenders who will get sick of tackling him and endear himself to his offensive linemen and coaches for always getting that extra yard and making something out of nothing. And athletically, he compares to guys who have shown the ability to be successful doing just that:
| Name | Hght | Wght | 40 yd | Bnch | Vert | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Robinson | 5' 8" | 217 | 4.65 | 21 | 32" | 113" |
| Mark Ingram | 5' 9" | 215 | 4.62 | 21 | 31½" | 113" |
| Mike Davis | 5' 9" | 217 | 4.61 | 17 | 34" | 116" |
| Travis Henry | 5' 9" | 223 | 4.61 | 23 | 35½" | |
| C.J. Anderson | 5' 8" | 224 | 4.6 | 17 | 32" | 119" |
| Zac Stacy | 5' 8" | 216 | 4.55 | 27 | 33" | 122" |
| Doug Martin | 5' 9" | 223 | 4.55 | 28 | 36" | 120" |
We've seen what guys like Mark Ingram and CJ Anderson can do when healthy and in an explosive offense, and I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson was able to follow suit.
The Opportunity
With Frank Gore in the twilight of his career and no longer the efficient player he was early in his career, the door is wide open for a young player like Robinson to take the reins of the running game in an explosive offense. It may not happen immediately, as the team looks for stability and veteran leadership to protect Luck, but Robinson could carve out a goal line and short yardage role sooner rather than later, making himself a valuable commodity in fantasy circles.
Let’s start with the opportunity in Indianapolis. In 2014, the duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson combined for only 944 yards on a team that really wanted to be a power running team. Both players were jettisoned after the season, leaving Dan Herron as the only experienced running back on the roster.
That is, until the Colts began shopping for players at the Coral Gables Nursing Home in south Florida, signing 32-year-old Frank Gore to “shore” up the position. Yes, Gore has consistently eluded the cliff most running backs fall off of at that age, and analysts have been attempting to replace him for years now to no avail. But we're still talking about a player who has posted a negative Rushing NEP score in four of the past five seasons behind an offensive line that most would consider far superior to what he will have in Indianapolis.
Gore will contribute in 2015 for sure, but we are talking about an aging back with bad knees who hasn’t been that great in the past few years. The opportunity is there for the taking, especially with Andrew Luck at the helm of an offense that should consistently see favorable fronts.
He may not be a sexy back, but Robinson is the type of player I want on my dynasty team and a guy I'm watching closely in redraft.