The Player
With all due respect to Amari Cooper, who is a darned good player, Dorial Green-Beckham has the most physical talent of any receiver in the 2015 class. Of course, there's also a higher likelihood that he could be out of the NFL in three years due to off-the-field issues or just plain laziness.
While DGB is far from obscure, fantasy owners are hesitant to take a gamble on the incredibly talented receiver due to the risk surrounding his career, with his average draft position hovering around 137 overall. But as far as upside is concerned, there aren't many players in the NFL who can physically do what he can do. Here are some players with a similar athletic profile:
| Name | Hght | Wght | 40 yd | Bnch | Vert | Broad | 3Cone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 6' 6" | 231 | 4.59 | 33" | 115" | ||
| Mike Evans | 6' 4¾" | 231 | 4.53 | 12 | 37" | 7.08 | |
| Marques Colston | 6' 5" | 224 | 4.5 | 37" | 123" | 6.96 | |
| Jon Baldwin | 6' 4" | 228 | 4.49 | 20 | 42" | 129" | 7.07 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 6' 5" | 237 | 4.49 | 13 | 33½" | 119" | 6.89 |
| Vincent Jackson | 6' 5" | 241 | 4.46 | 23 | 39" | 129" | 6.84 |
| Calvin Johnson | 6' 5" | 239 | 4.35 | 42½" | 139" |
DGB is basically a faster Plaxico Burress, capable of dominating most defensive backs with his size and ball skills, especially in the red zone. He finished the 2013 season with 59 catches for 883 yards and 12 touchdowns as essentially the third option in the Missouri passing attack.
He is also incredibly agile for a player with his size, utilized often on wide receiver screens due to his strength and ability in the open field. His 6.89 three-cone drill actually ranked ninth in the 2014 wide receiver class, and was tied with speedster and return man (and 5'10) Tyler Lockett.
While his athletic ability is unquestioned, this is still a player who was suspended and arrested multiple times for drug related issues as well as a domestic violence charge. He was kicked off the Missouri football team and transferred to Oklahoma, where he was able to practice but never play. Oklahoma coaches raved about his work habits and ability, and he spent the 2014 repairing his image and building his draft stock. If he has his head on straight in Tennessee, his ceiling is enormous.
The Opportunity
The Tennessee Titans are starting over on offense, drafting Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick. The returning weapons are a collection of underachievers, with Kendall Wright being the most established on the team. When looking at this offense in terms of Net Expected Points, or NEP, we are given an even more clear look at the deficiencies that exist in this receiving unit. NEP is numberFire's signature metric quantifying a player's production versus what is expected of them on a given play. You can learn more about NEP in our glossary.
In 2014, Wright posted a Reception NEP of just 51.94, which ranked 57th among receivers in 2014. Justin Hunter (43.54), who was recently arrested for assault, ranked just 67th.Delanie Walker (63.69) finished 10th among tight ends, but his Reception NEP per target (0.61) ranked 23rd among 43 tight ends with at least 20 receptions last season.
New addition Hakeem Nicks posted a Target NEP of -3.74, which was fifth worse for all receivers with more than 60 targets. He has continued to regress since his heyday as a member of the Giants.
This is a team searching for a dominant weapon, and Dorial Green-Beckham has the ability to be that guy. While the downside is certainly evident, his upside is as a top-10 wide receiver. While that may not happen his rookie season as he and his quarterback adapt to the speed of the NFL, he's still a player capable of being a touchdown machine in his first year.
A good training camp and preseason could see his ADP rise fast, and based on his ability, it would be completely justifiable.