NFL
7 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts
Which players are numberFire's NFL staff avoiding in fantasy drafts this year?

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts

By Daniel Lindsey

Andre Johnson had to leave the beautiful South to the cold and bleak Midwest and, to me, his fantasy results will become the same -- even if he is catching passes from Andrew Luck.

Johnson’s average draft position is 18th in both standard and PPR leagues while we project him as the 21st receiver in standard and 18th in PPR. But if I want a veteran receiver to plug in as WR2 or flex option most of the season, I prefer other options over Johnson.

Johnson received over 114 targets in 10 of his 12 seasons as a Texan, including 138 or more in 6 separate seasons. But he’s not getting that volume as an Indianapolis Colt. T.Y Hilton is already entrenched as the number-one receiver, and the Colts upgraded at running back by signing Frank Gore, an efficient pass-catcher out of the backfield.

After Hilton and Gore, Luck isn’t hurting for other options. He has two tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener that will eat up targets, and while Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett are unknowns at this point, they will get their opportunities, too.

Johnson was a WR1 five times from 2008 to 2013 with multiple quarterbacks, but the mileage has caught up to him, as he finished as a WR4 last year despite receiving 146 targets, right around his career average. Johnson wasn’t efficient on his targets, totaling a 0.38 Reception NEP per target, one of the worst rates in the NFL.

Roddy White is currently an eighth-round pick, and Brandon Marshall is a fifth-round pick. According to our projections, both should finish with the same amount of fantasy points on the season as Johnson. But thanks to better efficiencies -- Marshall had 0.63 Reception NEP per target and White had 0.64 in 2014, and slightly less mileage, I’m taking White or Marshall, not Andre Johnson.

Prev

Related News

An Introduction to FanDuel Research

Jim Sannes  --  Aug 11th, 2015

The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Mailbag 7/21/23

JJ Zachariason  --  Aug 11th, 2015

The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Approaching Unique Leagues

JJ Zachariason  --  Aug 11th, 2015