By mortifying to find out that his yards per carry average is dipping while his run blocking improved.

While the stats on the back of the football card are troublesome, numberFire metrics show that Matt Forte was deceptively effective last year. He was one of only 10 relevant running backs to post a positive Net Expected Point per rush (.01), and finished seventh in Rushing Success Rate with 46.62% of his carries totaling over zero expected points.

At this point, you’re probably wondering why Forte is on this list. Well, he needs to overcome tremendous odds to produce at the level he’s being drafted at.

Since 2000, only 20 running backs have accumulated 280-plus touches in their age-29 season. Of that 20 running backs sample, 13 saw their Rushing NEP per rush decline the next year, four had seasons ended by injury, and only three saw NEP per rush efficiency improvement.

Of the three who were able to increase their efficiency, none had as many touches (2,260) as Forte has accumulated over his seven-year career. In addition to the litany of bumps and bruises that come with 2,260 career touches, Forte had himself a workload at Tulane, accumulating 996 collegiate touches, a total only bested by one running back in the 2015 draft (David Johnson, 1,007 touches). Needless to say, a decline in rushing efficiency is on the horizon.

With Mark Trestman leaving town, a decrease in rushing efficiency won’t be able to be propped up by a gluttonous role in the passing game.

If you find yourself near the end of round one in redrafts and Forte is there, let someone else in your league play Icarus with him. Remember, you’re drafting for 2015, not 2014.