Projected Record: 9.3-6.7
Playoff Probability: 62.4%
Division Probability: 53.2%
Super Bowl Probability: 7.0%
nERD: 6.13
Up 19-7 against the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers were 10:53 away from playing for the Lombardi Trophy for the second time in the last five years. But a few key plays by Marshawn Lynch, a fateful onside kick, and one overtime later, it was Seattle, and not Green Bay, that was on their way to a second Super Bowl in as many seasons.
On the cusp of a Super Bowl berth, the Packers hope they can make their way back atop NFC North to another deep playoff run this year. But all of this has been overshadowed by the biggest story for the Packers so far this offseason, the loss of primary outside receiver Jordy Nelson for the year to a torn ACL. While many believe this should knock the Packers down a peg in the standings -- indeed, last year Nelson's 140.1 Reception NEP ranked him fourth in the league in this metric -- this may not necessarily be true.
That's because this offense still lives and dies with their quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
In 2012, Rodgers was forced to play without Nelson for four games due to a nagging hamstring injury. A quick look at the splits that season shows that, while a bit lower, Rodgers numbers without Nelson weren't too different from his marks with Nelson in the lineup:
| Splits | Gm | Cmp% | Yds | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +Nelson | 12 | 68.2% | 275.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| -Nelson | 4 | 64.8% | 248.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
And with Rodgers' leading the league once again in Passing NEP per drop back (0.34) last year, there's a strong belief that he still has this elite ability to succeed regardless of his supporting cast.
With that being said, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy may be asked to shoulder a bit heavier of a workload, but the true beneficiary could be Davante Adams, who should emerge as the clear number-two on this team.
The addition of James Jones adds another name to the competition between Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis for the number-three receiver spot on this offense and gives this team a dependable and familiar target in the red zone
The real blemish for the Packers actually resides with the defense. With an Adjusted Defensive NEP per play of 0.03, the Packers ranked as just the 18th most efficient defense in the league last season. With a number of question marks in their secondary and linebacking corps, the team must find solutions to these problems if they hope to repeat their success from 2014.
And if they do make it back to the NFC Championship Game, hopefully the Packers have worked on their "hands team" to prevent a repeat of last season's results.