Projected Record: 9.2-6.8
Playoff Probability: 60.5%
Division Probability: 37.7%
Super Bowl Probability: 6.1%
nERD: 5.67
Thanks to a federal court ruling last week throwing out Tom Brady's four-game "Deflategate" suspension, the reigning Super Bowl champs will get to start their title defense against the Pittsburght Steelers with their All-Pro quarterback under center.
And while getting Brady for all 16 games this year hasn't significantly improved the Patriots chances of winning this year's Super Bowl, it does solidify their spot at number four in our power rankings.
Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman should once again be key targets for Brady in the passing game with LeGarrette Blount leading the way on the ground. Losing Brandon LaFell to the PUP list due to a foot injury may hurt the Patriots aerial attack a bit to start the season -- he was third on the team in targets (119), receptions (74), receiving yards (953) and second in receiving touchdowns (7) -- but this also gives Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson an opportunity to step up and carve out a role for themselves in this offense.
On the defense, the Pats had the fourth-best pass defense as measured by Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play (0.00) last year, behind just Seattle (-0.01), Buffalo (-0.06), and Houston (-0.06). But after losing their three starting cornerbacks from Super Bowl XLIX -- Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Arrington -- this offseason, this team will have to rely heavily on their stout front seven to pick up the slack.
Luckily, this team fields a formidable rotation of linebackers and defensive lineman that inclues Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dont'a Hightower, Jerod Mayo, and Jamie Collins that can make plays behind the line of scrimmage and get pressure on the quarterback. In 2014, the Patriots ranked in the top-half of the league with 40 sacks.
With the Patriots having won the AFC East division in 12 of the last 15 seasons -- despite the leap many are expecting the Dolphins to take this year -- expect more of the same for at least one more season, with the Patriots once again a Super Bowl contender.