There are three games this week in which a top-10 team in Adjusted Passing NEP per play is facing a bottom-10 team in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. One was the one we just went through -- Packers against 49ers. Another was also touched on earlier with the Raiders facing the Browns, but I have more faith in Murray than I do Derek Carr, prompting me to choose the rushing game. The third is the Bills against the New York Giants. Again, just like we all expected.
Tyrod Taylor has been spewing efficiency this year. He is currently third in Rushing NEP, which isn't a huge shock. However, he is also eighth in Passing NEP, which is a shock to those of us not blessed with the power of predicting stuff that makes no sense. Vegas is buying into the hype around this dude, too.
With an over/under of 46.5, the Bills are favored by 5.5 points, putting them at an implied total of 26. That's the sixth highest total on the board this week. Remember, this is for a team that is starting a quarterback who had never started a game prior to September. Vegas has felt the divinity of Tygod, and it's time for us to do the same.
You could most definitely roll Tyrod out without a stack in a tourney because of his running abilities, but there is no way I'm doing that this week. Not when I can stack him with Charles Clay and bask in his Gucciness.
Clay is currently second on the team in targets (behind Percy Harvin) with 17 targets on the season. He has seen that total increase each game, and he now is sitting at 21.79 percent of the team's targets. He'll certainly have the opportunity and the floor. A matchup with the Giants gives him the upside.
Through three weeks, the Giants are yet to have a game in which a tight end didn't have at least 60 receiving yards. In Week 1, Jason Witten turned 8 receptions into 60 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Gavin Escobar added an additional tight-end touchdown. In Week 2, Jacob Tamme reminded us all that he's still on an NFL roster by turning 4 receptions into 77 yards, including a 41-yard outburst. Finally, there was Jordan Reed in Week 3 with 6 receptions for 96 yards, and those numbers could have been so much better if he had a quarterback throwing him the ball who didn't hate touchdowns. Now it's Clay's turn to take a hack. Stacking Clay with Taylor not only gets you sweet upside, but the pricing on the two of them can allow you to get creative elsewhere.