This one might be just a wee bit less unique than the previous two. Just guessing. You're not going to catch anybody napping here after Monday night's outburst, but the floor associated with the Packers' passing offense is undeniable.
No matter what real metrics you looked at Monday night, Aaron Rodgers was da gawd. He has now sent the Packers into third place in Adjusted Passing NEP per play, which is actually a disappointment by the Packers' standards. A matchup against the struggling San Francisco 49ers could vault them back into that top spot with which they have become so familiar.
Through the first three weeks, the 49ers are 28th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. You'll remember that they held the Minnesota Vikings to almost nothing through the air in Week 1, which should show you how truly awful San Francisco has been the past two weeks. Ben Roethlisberger was the top fantasy quarterback of Week 2 against the 49ers, and Carson Palmer was basically able to coast after the first three minutes because of the score in Week 3. Now they face the best quarterback in football? Nice.
Starting with Rodgers, I am far more likely to roll him out in cash games this week. First, his matchup and situation are so incredibly much better than any of the other top-priced quarterbacks on the board. Nobody has a higher floor than this guy. Second, I have concerns about Rodgers' ceiling. He could see the same thing as Palmer, where the team establishes a big lead early and defers to the run. That's not a detriment to his floor, but it does potentially put a lid on the upside. Plus, I tend to stray away from spending up on quarterbacks in tourneys. I'm just having a hard time not plugging him into all of my cash-game lineups.
For the receivers, people are going to be all about James Jones this week if Davante Adams is out, and possibly even if Adams does play. They absolutely should be, too. With Adams out for most of Week 3, Jones was targeted eight times, and he is now second on the team in targets. His price is sweet, as is his floor, so it's totally cool to target him. In tourneys, I'm liking Randall Cobb.
If people roster Jones in a tourney, they're not likely to roster Cobb, as well. This could drive his ownership down despite an awesome matchup. Additionally, Cobb has 28 targets this year, accounting for 32.56 of the team's total targets. Any time you can get a guy like that in a matchup like this with possibly reduced ownership, it is in your best interest to do so.