Yes, I definitely expected this to be a viable option heading into the season. The Raiders always projected to be a team with positive game script, especially when they head on the road. Absolute no-brainer.

Once you remove the labels, this one just makes too much sense. The team that is currently seventh in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play is facing the team that is 28th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Meanwhile, the team with the advantage is favored by three points with an implied total of 23.75. Everything is setting up for this to be another positive outing from Latavius Murray.

Murray thus far has 3.38 Rushing NEP this year, the ninth best among running backs with at least 20 carries. While ninth best isn't going to blow you away, Murray has done that as the unquestioned lead back of the team, providing him with a solid floor. His Success Rate (the percentage of carries on which he has a positive NEP) is 42.3 percent, ranking 21st out of 47 running backs with at least 20 carries. If we want to look at only high-volume backs (those with at least 40 carries), his Success Rate is eighth out of 18. Again, it's not elite-level stuff, but it also doesn't have to be against this Bears' rush defense.

Let's say that things go according to plan, and the Raiders do have a positive game script. Given his control over the backfield, it seems logical that Murray would have at least 15 carries. That's a mark he has reached four times in his career, where he has averaged 91.5 rushing yards per game. It's a small sample size, but that's a sweet little number. Additionally, he has averaged 12.89 points per game (in 0.5 point-per-reception formats) over his past seven, and that includes three games in which the Raiders lost by at least 18 points. In the four wins over that span, he's at 14.85. The floor is real here, and with the Bears' defense, so is the upside.