Ronnie Hillman is flat out a guy you can't trust weekly. That's what happens when his role is uncertain and his offense is bad (the Broncos rank 31st in Adjusted NEP per play).

But this week, the Broncos are 4-point road favorites against the Browns and own a good-not-great team total of 23.25 points, based on the Vegas lines. Well, that suggests the Broncos will be leading, and Cleveland is last in the league in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play (0.16). Second-place Green Bay is significantly better at 0.11.

For as well as Josh McCown has been playing, he'll have his hands full dealing with the best defense in the NFL, according to our metrics. Hillman (2.13) ranks 17th among 58 backs with at least 20 carries in Rushing NEP. C.J. Anderson (-19.41) is last, nearly 5 points worse than 57th-ranked Melvin Gordon (-14.90).

It's no guarantee Hillman sees the volume, but he's been the better bet to grind out positive gains this season, which is why he makes sense in Week 6.