Remember two slides ago when I said T.J. Yeldon has the third-lowest Rush NEP score this season? The only two backs behind Yeldon are C.J. Anderson (what happened?) and Melvin Gordon. San Diego’s offensive line has been a mess, and that isn’t something that seems likely to turn around soon.

Green Bay is actually the second-worst run defense according to our numbers, but this is a bad matchup in terms of game script. Playing at Lambeau Field, the Chargers are likely to be passing to keep up with the potent Packers offense, meaning this could be a Danny Woodhead game. We project Gordon for 11.10 carries for 46.52 yards and 0.24 touchdowns.