Despite having the seventh-most carries in football, T.J. Yeldon has only attained low-end RB2 status on the season. Why? Out of 49 running backs with at least 30 carries (a relatively light threshold), Yeldon is 37th in Rushing NEP per play at -0.11. Combine his volume and efficiency, and he has the third-lowest Rush NEP in football.

Houston is actually 17th among run defenses according to our numbers, but would be higher if not for allowing a huge game to Devonta Freeman in a Week 4 blowout. Yeldon’s performance could come down to a matter of game script, which has not been Jacksonville’s strong suit. We project him for 15.07 carries, 55.67 rushing yards, and 0.24 touchdowns, as long as he actually ends up playing.