NFL
5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Some of Week 13's best daily fantasy football matchups lie with players that are harder to trust.

Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense

If you gave out an audible groan upon reading, "Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense," then I thank you. This is the type of reaction we want here.

The idea behind targeting the Falcons is that they just got toasted by the Minnesota Vikings. At home. With Harrison Smith out. Everything lined up for a big game out of Julio Jones and company, but instead, you likely ended up with a sour taste in your mouth. I was right there with you, friend. Let's wash that taste out with the same culprit in Week 13.

Normally, I'm not super eager to target passing offenses facing an opponent for the second time that year. This is an instance where I believe the advantages of targeting the Falcons from potentially reduced ownership exceed the disadvantages of the drop in efficiency.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently sit 25th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, a mark that has improved slightly over the past few weeks. That's partially because they have faced the tremendous trio of Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Hasselbeck over that span. They don't get that same luxury this week.

Much has been made of Matt Ryan's struggles this season, and those gripes are certainly warranted. He has thrown four interceptions in the red zone, the most in the league and double the entire league outside of two players with three. Not only do you lose the points for the interceptions, but you also lose a shot at a passing touchdown. That's the most frustrating event possible for a fantasy owner, so I really can't blame you if you don't want to stomach more Ryan missteps.

At the same time, Ryan has still been a good quarterback in numberFire's eyes. He's seventh in Passing NEP per drop back of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs and third in Passing Success Rate. He's not playing at an elite level, but he's not as bad as the public perceives him to be.

The other thing working in Ryan's favor is Vegas. With an over/under of 46 and an even spread, this is a game that is projected to be in neutral game script. That is exactly what we are looking for in a quarterback, as he will likely have volume without sacrificing efficiency. Things are lining up well for a nice bounceback for Ryan -- if you can suck it up and forgive him for his past wrongdoings, that is.

The endorsement of Ryan is much more fervent on FanDuel than DraftKings. FanDuel adjusted his price to reflect his performance, dropping him to $7,400, below 13 other quarterbacks on the Sunday to Monday slate. On DraftKings, he's still $6,700, tied for the fourth highest price. At that slot, his floor is too much for me to stomach, even in a tournament. He's very much in play on FanDuel if you're looking to exploit some recency bias.

I probably don't need to tell you why Jones is a top target. The Buccaneers' defense is not good. He is. End of story. He is seeing 32.64 percent of the team's targets, and he has at least 90 receiving yards in eight games this season. If both he and Ryan experience some red-zone touchdown regression at the same time, you'll want to be there to take advantage.

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