I'm having a hard time gauging what kind of ownership to expect on DeAngelo Williams for this weekend. On the one hand, he's coming off yet another outstanding game against a quality opponent. On the other, people may be investing heavily (as mentioned at the beginning) in the Steelers' passing offense. That would likely draw them off of Williams. If the latter ends up being the case, then I see Williams as a wise choice this weekend.
This endorsement doesn't become because the Colts' rush defense is exceptionally bad or anything. They are currently 13th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, which is a good amount better than they have been in previous seasons. However, Pittsburgh has numberFire's second most efficient rushing offense, and the Colts' pass defense should permit the Steelers to operate in the red zone with regularity. That's what puts Williams high on the radar.
Even though he has only started five games this year, Williams is tied for fifth in the league in red-zone carries with 31. Over half of those (16) have come in the past three games alone. This is why -- just like last week against the Seattle Seahawks -- Williams is at least a viable option even in a difficult matchup. The Colts are near the middle of the pack, the Steelers are at home, and Williams figures to see some heavy volume.
Assuming Ben Roethlisberger plays, it would seem logical that the Steelers would hold an advantage over the Colts. If they can establish a lead, they're likely to turn to the ground game to wind the clock. Williams has played at least 89.4 percent of the team's offensive snaps each of the past three weeks, so you know where those carries are going. This gives him a reliable floor to go with that considerable upside discussed at the top. Things line up well for another solid effort out of Williams for only $7,200 on FanDuel and $5,600 on DraftKings. That's a steal, given the positives.
This is a spot where I'd be sure to check ownership in the Thursday games on FanDuel. If Williams is owned on 20 percent of rosters, I'd feel more comfortable investing in the team's passing offense. But if you can snag him for something in the area of 10 percent ownership while the receivers are well above that, I'd feel very comfortable in fading the passing attack to take on Williams. You're going to want to invest in this offense this week, and a look at the ownership will tell you where the biggest advantage lies.