It doesn't get much more thrilling (or vomit-inducing) than placing significant faith in Brandon Weeden or Brian Hoyer. Let's fully engage ourselves in the Week 17 spirit.
Much of last week's optimism about the New Orleans Saints centered around how abysmal the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense has been on the road. Then Drew Brees went out and threw for 412 yards on 36 attempts and was the most efficient player in the league for Week 16.
Guess what. Those Jaguars are on the road again this week as they face the Houston Texans. I'm sold.
Once you add in Brees' big day, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 0.34 Passing NEP per drop back when the Jags are on the road this year. That checks in right behind Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer for the best mark in the league this year. They're truly not great, Bob.
The other side of this is that Weeden and Hoyer aren't nearly as bad as perception would dictate. They are currently 17th and 18th, respectively, in Passing NEP per drop back of the 43 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, and that includes Weeden's time with the Dallas Cowboys. They're both ahead of Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and Aaron Rodgers, so we'd be silly to overlook them in this matchup just because of perception.
Although DeAndre Hopkins' splits have been fairly even regardless of who has been quarterback, he will also benefit from having either Weeden or Hoyer at the helm. Scoring goes up with touchdowns, touchdowns go up with efficiency, and efficiency goes up when one of those two hombres is throwing it, as the table below shows. The "Per Drop Back" column is simply the Passing NEP divided by the number of drop backs.
| Quarterback | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Per Drop Back |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeden or Hoyer | 369 | 56.26 | 0.15 |
| Other | 204 | -19.11 | -0.09 |
Just a wee bit of a difference there.
This also trickles down beyond Hopkins. If you want to change things up and roll out Nate Washington, I wouldn't blame you for a second. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien has already said Cecil Shorts isn't likely to play, and Washington has been huge this year with Shorts out of the lineup. In the three games in which Shorts hasn't seen a target, Washington has turned 27 targets into 16 receptions for 243 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's not nearly as dependable as Hopkins, but Washington is a good buy based on his pricing.