I promise I'm not trying to get all narrative-y on y'all here. This was a sick matchup before Chip Kelly got himself canned, and it will continue to be so given how far the team's pass defense has fallen of late.
If we look at Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, the Eagles rank 14th overall on the year. That's certainly not great, but it's also not terrible. Their play since their Week 8 bye, though, tells a wildly different story.
These splits are showed in this table. The "Fantasy Points" column is the average quarterback output based on FanDuel's scoring, which assigns four points per passing touchdown and deducts one point per interception.
| Span | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Per Drop Back | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Bye | 276 | -22.91 | -0.08 | 16.64 |
| After Bye | 311 | 91.38 | 0.29 | 25.79 |
I understand having a difference in play before and after a bye. But splits that drastic are mind boggling.
That lines things up well for the New York Giants' passing offense with the return of Odell Beckham. The Giants are at home, the over/under is a lofty 52, and it's projected neutral game script. Give me all of the Eli Manning.
Manning was atrocious the first time these two teams faced, posting -21.83 Passing NEP on 38 drop backs. That's one of the worst performances of any quarterback this entire season. Given the way he has trended since that game and where the Eagles' defense is headed, he appears primed for a nice rebound performance.
Even if you decide to shy away from Manning, you're going to need heavy exposure to Beckham. The Eagles have allowed seven wide receivers to have at least 100 receiving yards this year, including juggernauts Cole Beasley and Robert Woods. With wide receivers having scored 23 touchdowns against the Eagles this year, Beckham is in a superb spot.
A lot of you may have been burned by Will Tye last week, but I dig him a bit in Week 17 with Beckham back. Sure, he'll likely see a smaller target share, but Beckham brings with him a hefty implied team total. With the Giants expected to see more trips to the red zone, that can only mean good things for Tye. I wouldn't dive all in on Tye, but he is a good option if you need to save cap at the position.