Best Pick: Jeremy Hill

It may not make sense to pinpoint Hill here when I just got done talking about Bernard being the top selection in the fifth, but variance is all part of the game.

We're going to be wrong. We're wrong all the time. While Bernard is easily a safer pick than Hill, Hill also brings some upside.

If you use yardage totals to project how many touchdowns a player "should have had" last year, Hill's scoring total would plummet from 11 -- yes, he scored 11 times last year -- to just a little over 5. He's more than likely not going to hit that touchdown total again this year.

But this is the seventh round, where you should be shooting for upside. Hill has that, as he rushed for well over 1,100 yards during his rookie campaign just two years ago on one fewer carry than he saw last year (222 versus 223), finishing as fantasy's 11th-best rusher after starting just eight games. Remember when he was a late first-round pick last year?

Bernard will have a significant role in the offense, but there's enough room for Hill to capture another 200 carries with his early-down work. If anything happens to Bernard, or if Hill can increase his efficiency back to 2014 form -- a 48.65% Success Rate during his rookie year versus a 40.81% rate last year -- he can finish as a good RB2 in fantasy.