By Matt Blair

Back in May, I wrote an article about how drafting Adrian Peterson as the first running back off the board would be a mistake. Since then, I have seemed to avoid Peterson in all of my drafts because his cost is just too high, going off the board at pick 1.05.

Most people are targeting Peterson in drafts because he gives you the feeling of safety with some upside at a position that tends to drop like flies, but that feeling seems like an illusion.

Since the turn of the century, running backs in their 30s coming off of a 300-plus carry season (10 seasons) have nearly all seen their rushing attempts and yardage drop the following year. Only Hall of Fame running back Curtis Martin saw an increase.

Peterson's Total Net Expected Points reached a five-year low last season with a score of 9.99. Even though he scored the second-most fantasy points, it was mostly volume-driven -- among the top-10 backs, his Total NEP was 8th-best.

It seems that the only way Peterson will reach his draft cost is by having another season with 300 or more carries and double-digit touchdowns. Factoring in his age, the number of recent carries, historical data, his lack of efficiency, and the fact that his backup is a possible breakout candidate, I'm avoiding Peterson in all drafts this season.