NFL
12 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts This Year
While everyone wants to know who will be the next big sleeper in fantasy football, it's just as important to find out which players we should be avoiding.

Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

By Jordan Hoover

Hurns turned in an eye-popping 2015 sophomore season, catching 10 touchdowns on just 64 receptions. His catch rate improved by nearly 9 percentage points compared to the 2014 season, and he was the third-most efficient wide receiver last season based on numberFire’s Blake Bortles is likely to see some regression this season. numberFire's Matt Blair also wrote a really great piece showing why off-season additions and returners from injury could directly impact Hurns’s production. And, finally, circling back to efficiency, Hurns’s extreme jump from one season to the next given near identical target totals appears unsustainable, even with a small two-year sample size:

Year Rec Reception NEP Targets Target NEP Reception NEP/Target Catch Rate
2015 64 97.06 105 54.16 0.92 60.95%
2014 51 52.01 97 0.47 0.54 52.58%


It’s unlikely that Hurns simply evaporates into irrelevance in the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense. There is a good chance, however, that fantasy owners currently drafting him in the fifth round are likely to be let down come season’s end.

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