There is no shortage of props to bet on at NFL odds for Super Bowl LVI, ranging from coin toss results to, well, there are a lot of them.
A particularly enticing angle for each Super Bowl is, yes, the coin toss (tails is -104, by the way), but also first-score and early-game data.
So I wanted to dig into these trends and see what angles we should play for this weekend.
What stands out?
Coin Toss and Early-Game Data
Here are some coin toss and early-score trends for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Week | Game | Result | Offense First Drive Result | Team First Drive Score? | Scored First? | Team First Score Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | vs MIN | CIN (Defer) | Punt | No | No | TD 2yd Tee Higgins rec |
2 | at CHI | CIN (Defer) | Punt | No | No | FG 53yd Evan McPherson |
3 | at PIT | CIN (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | TD 17yd Tyler Boyd rec |
4 | vs JAC | CIN (Defer) | Missed FG | No | No | TD 22yd CJ Uzomah rec |
5 | vs GB | CIN (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | TD 4yd Samaje Perine rec |
6 | at DET | CIN (Defer) | TD | Yes | Yes | TD 24yd Chris Evans rec |
7 | at BAL | BAL (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | FG 52yd Evan McPherson |
8 | at NYJ | NYJ (Receive) | Punt | No | No | TD 1yd Joe Mixon run |
9 | vs CLE | CLE (Defer) | INT (Pick-Six) | No | No | TD 11yd Joe Mixon run |
11 | at LV | LV (Defer) | Fumble | No | No | FG 54yd Evan McPherson |
12 | vs PIT | PIT (Defer) | TD | Yes | Yes | TD 8yd Joe Burrow run |
13 | vs LAC | CIN (Defer) | Fumble | No | No | TD 29yd Tee Higgins rec |
14 | vs SF | CIN (Defer) | Punt | No | No | FG 37yd Evan McPherson |
15 | at DEN | DEN (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | FG 53yd Evan McPherson |
16 | vs BAL | BAL (Defer) | FG | Yes | Yes | FG 30yd Evan McPherson |
17 | vs KC | CIN (Defer) | Punt | No | No | TD 72yd Ja'Marr Chase rec |
18 | at CLE | CLE (Defer) | Punt | No | No | TD fumble return |
19 | vs LV | CIN (Defer) | TD | Yes | No | TD 7yd CJ Uzomah rec |
20 | at TEN | CIN (Defer) | FG | Yes | Yes | FG 38yd Evan McPherson |
21 | at KC | KC (Defer) | Punt | No | No | FG 32yd Evan McPherson |
And for the Los Angeles Rams.
Week | Game | Result | Offense First Drive Result | Team First Drive Score? | Scored First? | Team First Score Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | vs CHI | LA (Defer) | TD | Yes | Yes | TD 67yd Van Jefferson rec |
2 | at IND | LA (Defer) | TD | Yes | Yes | TD 16yd Cooper Kupp rec |
3 | vs TB | LA (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | TD 6yd Tyler Higbee rec |
4 | vs ARI | ARI (Defer) | FG | No | Yes | FG 47yd Matt Gay |
5 | at SEA | SEA (Defer) | Punt | No | No | FG 31yd Matt Gay |
6 | at NYG | LA (Defer) | Punt | No | No | TD 15yd Robert Woods rec |
7 | vs DET | LA (Defer) | FG | No | No | FG 33yd Matt Gay |
8 | at HOU | HOU (Defer) | TD | Yes | Yes | TD 3yd Darrell Henderson rec |
9 | vs TEN | TEN (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | FG 34yd Matt Gay |
10 | at SF | SF (Defer) | INT | No | No | TD 10yd Tyler Higbee rec |
12 | at GB | GB (Defer) | Punt | No | No | TD 79yd Van Jefferson rec |
13 | vs JAC | JAC (Defer) | FG | No | Yes | FG 40yd Matt Gay |
14 | at ARI | LA (Defer) | Punt | No | No | TD 2yd Odell Beckham rec |
15 | vs SEA | SEA (Defer) | FG | No | Yes | FG 55yd Matt Gay |
16 | at MIN | LA (Defer) | TD | Yes | Yes | TD 1yd Sony Michel run |
17 | at BAL | LA (Defer) | Missed FG | No | No | TD 18yd Cooper Kupp rec |
18 | vs SF | SF (Defer) | FG | No | Yes | FG 43yd Matt Gay |
19 | vs ARI | LA (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | TD 4yd Odell Beckham |
20 | at TB | LA (Defer) | FG | No | Yes | FG 26yd Matt Gay |
21 | vs SF | SF (Defer) | Punt | No | Yes | TD 16yd Cooper Kupp rec |
Here are the combined trends.
Team | Games | Toss Win% | Deferral Rate (In-Game) | Deferral Rate (Opponents) | Deferral Rate (Team) | First Score Rate (Team) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CIN | 20 | 55.0% | 100.0% | 88.9% | 100.0% | 40.0% |
LA | 20 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 65.0% |
Last year, we saw some trends that suggested that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would get the ball first, but this year, it's going to come down to the coin toss.
Both teams should be expected to defer, and then from there, we're looking only at early-down offensive success.
2021 Results | First-Drive TD | First-Drive FG | First-Drive Any Score | Scored First |
---|---|---|---|---|
CIN | 15.0% | 10.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% |
LA | 20.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 65.0% |
The Rams have been the better team early in games, and that's evidenced by their first-quarter -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles to lead at the end of the first quarter is -152, as well, and Rams -0.5 at the end of the first is +112.
The result of the first drive is an interesting market, too.
First-Drive Result | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
---|---|
Punt | -125 |
Offensive Touchdown | +330 |
Field Goal Attempt | +440 |
Other | +500 |
Of the combined 40 games between these two, 10 of these teams' first drives ended in a field goal attempt, suggesting odds of around +300, so +440 is enticing.
And 19 of the 40 opening drives ended in a punt, so there's not enough value on a punt at -125 to recommend.
First Scorer Data
Here's a closer look at the data on who scored first for each team. This isn't meant to be predictive, per se, but rather to show the dispersion of first scores and touchdowns.
Let's start with the Bengals.
CIN First Scorer (Any) | Count | CIN First Scorer (TD) | Count |
---|---|---|---|
Evan McPherson | 8 | Joe Mixon | 5 |
Joe Mixon | 2 | Ja'Marr Chase | 3 |
Tee Higgins | 2 | CJ Uzomah | 3 |
CJ Uzomah | 2 | Tee Higgins | 2 |
Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | Tyler Boyd | 2 |
Joe Burrow | 1 | Samaje Perine | 2 |
Chris Evans | 1 | Joe Burrow | 1 |
Samaje Perine | 1 | Chris Evans | 1 |
Tyler Boyd | 1 | Defensive | 1 |
Defensive | 1 |
And now the Rams.
LA First Scorer (Any) | Count | LA First Scorer (TD) | Count |
---|---|---|---|
Matt Gay | 8 | Cooper Kupp | 4 |
Cooper Kupp | 3 | Van Jefferson | 4 |
Odell Beckham | 2 | Sony Michel | 3 |
Tyler Higbee | 2 | Tyler Higbee | 3 |
Van Jefferson | 2 | Odell Beckham | 2 |
Sony Michel | 1 | Darrell Henderson | 2 |
Darrell Henderson | 1 | Kendall Blanton | 1 |
Robert Woods | 1 | Robert Woods | 1 |
Combined with the angle of the Rams starting off hotter than the Bengals and the early field goal trends, we can also look to bet the first score overall to be a Rams field goal (+350).
The Rams' first score to be a field goal is +145, as well, odds that imply a 40.8% chance. In their 20 games, they started 8 times with a field goal (40.0%), so we're not far off. It's a better bet than their first score to be a touchdown (-210).
I know I'm honing in on the field goal angle here, but the team to score the first field goal is beatable. The Rams are -114.
What about first touchdown scorer numbers?
First Touchdown Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | First Touchdown Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Cooper Kupp | +490 | Cam Akers | +650 |
Ja'Marr Chase | +800 | Joe Mixon | +850 |
Odell Beckham | +900 | Tee Higgins | +1200 |
Tyler Boyd | +1200 | Sony Michel | +1300 |
Kendall Blanton | +1500 | Tyler Higbee | +1500 |
Van Jefferson | +1600 | Samaje Perine | +2100 |
C.J. Uzomah | +2400 | Drew Sample | +2400 |
Los Angeles Rams D/ST | +2900 | Ben Skowronek | +2900 |
Cincinnati D/ST | +3100 | Matthew Stafford | +3400 |
Joe Burrow | +3400 | Brandon Powell | +4300 |
Chris Evans | +5000 | Trent Taylor | +5000 |
Brycen Hopkins | +5000 | Mitchell Wilcox | +6000 |
No Touchdown Scored | +10000 | Mike Thomas | +10000 |
Jake Funk | +10000 | Buddy Howell | +10000 |
Overall, the Rams have a 58.6% pass rate in the red zone (above the NFL average of 53.8%), and the Bengals are at 56.7%.
In the first half before the two-minute warning, the Rams' red zone pass rate spikes to 62.1% (the NFL average drops to 51.0% with these parameters). The Bengals' mark falls to 52.5%.
Combined with the early Rams preference overall, we should look to the pass-catchers for the first score.
The odds are there for Cooper Kupp (+490), and a big return is available for Van Jefferson (+1600), who has kicked off the touchdown scoring in as many games (4) as Kupp has this season.