NFL
Super Bowl LVI: Coin Toss, Kick Deferral, and First Score Trends for the Rams and Bengals

There is no shortage of props to bet on at NFL odds for Super Bowl LVI, ranging from coin toss results to, well, there are a lot of them.

A particularly enticing angle for each Super Bowl is, yes, the coin toss (tails is -104, by the way), but also first-score and early-game data.

So I wanted to dig into these trends and see what angles we should play for this weekend.

What stands out?

Coin Toss and Early-Game Data

Here are some coin toss and early-score trends for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Week Game Result Offense First
Drive Result
Team First
Drive Score?
Scored
First?
Team First
Score Type
1 vs MIN CIN
(Defer)
Punt No No TD
2yd
Tee Higgins rec
2 at CHI CIN
(Defer)
Punt No No FG
53yd
Evan McPherson
3 at PIT CIN
(Defer)
Punt No Yes TD
17yd
Tyler Boyd rec
4 vs JAC CIN
(Defer)
Missed
FG
No No TD
22yd
CJ Uzomah rec
5 vs GB CIN
(Defer)
Punt No Yes TD
4yd
Samaje Perine rec
6 at DET CIN
(Defer)
TD Yes Yes TD
24yd
Chris Evans rec
7 at BAL BAL
(Defer)
Punt No Yes FG
52yd
Evan McPherson
8 at NYJ NYJ
(Receive)
Punt No No TD
1yd
Joe Mixon run
9 vs CLE CLE
(Defer)
INT
(Pick-Six)
No No TD
11yd
Joe Mixon run
11 at LV LV
(Defer)
Fumble No No FG
54yd
Evan McPherson
12 vs PIT PIT
(Defer)
TD Yes Yes TD
8yd
Joe Burrow run
13 vs LAC CIN
(Defer)
Fumble No No TD
29yd
Tee Higgins rec
14 vs SF CIN
(Defer)
Punt No No FG
37yd
Evan McPherson
15 at DEN DEN
(Defer)
Punt No Yes FG
53yd
Evan McPherson
16 vs BAL BAL
(Defer)
FG Yes Yes FG
30yd
Evan McPherson
17 vs KC CIN
(Defer)
Punt No No TD
72yd
Ja'Marr Chase rec
18 at CLE CLE
(Defer)
Punt No No TD
fumble return
19 vs LV CIN
(Defer)
TD Yes No TD
7yd
CJ Uzomah rec
20 at TEN CIN
(Defer)
FG Yes Yes FG
38yd
Evan McPherson
21 at KC KC
(Defer)
Punt No No FG
32yd
Evan McPherson


And for the Los Angeles Rams.

Week Game Result Offense First
Drive Result
Team First
Drive Score?
Scored
First?
Team First
Score Type
1 vs CHI LA
(Defer)
TD Yes Yes TD
67yd
Van Jefferson rec
2 at IND LA
(Defer)
TD Yes Yes TD
16yd
Cooper Kupp rec
3 vs TB LA
(Defer)
Punt No Yes TD
6yd
Tyler Higbee rec
4 vs ARI ARI
(Defer)
FG No Yes FG
47yd
Matt Gay
5 at SEA SEA
(Defer)
Punt No No FG
31yd
Matt Gay
6 at NYG LA
(Defer)
Punt No No TD
15yd
Robert Woods rec
7 vs DET LA
(Defer)
FG No No FG
33yd
Matt Gay
8 at HOU HOU
(Defer)
TD Yes Yes TD
3yd
Darrell Henderson rec
9 vs TEN TEN
(Defer)
Punt No Yes FG
34yd
Matt Gay
10 at SF SF
(Defer)
INT No No TD
10yd
Tyler Higbee rec
12 at GB GB
(Defer)
Punt No No TD
79yd
Van Jefferson rec
13 vs JAC JAC
(Defer)
FG No Yes FG
40yd
Matt Gay
14 at ARI LA
(Defer)
Punt No No TD
2yd
Odell Beckham rec
15 vs SEA SEA
(Defer)
FG No Yes FG
55yd
Matt Gay
16 at MIN LA
(Defer)
TD Yes Yes TD
1yd
Sony Michel run
17 at BAL LA
(Defer)
Missed
FG
No No TD
18yd
Cooper Kupp rec
18 vs SF SF
(Defer)
FG No Yes FG
43yd
Matt Gay
19 vs ARI LA
(Defer)
Punt No Yes TD
4yd
Odell Beckham
20 at TB LA
(Defer)
FG No Yes FG
26yd
Matt Gay
21 vs SF SF
(Defer)
Punt No Yes TD
16yd
Cooper Kupp rec


Here are the combined trends.

Team Games Toss
Win%
Deferral Rate
(In-Game)
Deferral Rate
(Opponents)
Deferral Rate
(Team)
First Score Rate
(Team)
CIN 20 55.0% 100.0% 88.9% 100.0% 40.0%
LA 20 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 65.0%


Last year, we saw some trends that suggested that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would get the ball first, but this year, it's going to come down to the coin toss.

Both teams should be expected to defer, and then from there, we're looking only at early-down offensive success.

2021
Results
First-Drive
TD
First-Drive
FG
First-Drive
Any
Score
Scored
First
CIN 15.0% 10.0% 25.0% 40.0%
LA 20.0% 30.0% 50.0% 65.0%


The Rams have been the better team early in games, and that's evidenced by their first-quarter -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Los Angeles to lead at the end of the first quarter is -152, as well, and Rams -0.5 at the end of the first is +112.

The result of the first drive is an interesting market, too.

First-Drive
Result
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Odds
Punt -125
Offensive Touchdown +330
Field Goal Attempt +440
Other +500


Of the combined 40 games between these two, 10 of these teams' first drives ended in a field goal attempt, suggesting odds of around +300, so +440 is enticing.

And 19 of the 40 opening drives ended in a punt, so there's not enough value on a punt at -125 to recommend.

First Scorer Data

Here's a closer look at the data on who scored first for each team. This isn't meant to be predictive, per se, but rather to show the dispersion of first scores and touchdowns.

Let's start with the Bengals.

CIN First
Scorer (Any)
Count CIN First
Scorer (TD)
Count
Evan McPherson 8 Joe Mixon 5
Joe Mixon 2 Ja'Marr Chase 3
Tee Higgins 2 CJ Uzomah 3
CJ Uzomah 2 Tee Higgins 2
Ja'Marr Chase 1 Tyler Boyd 2
Joe Burrow 1 Samaje Perine 2
Chris Evans 1 Joe Burrow 1
Samaje Perine 1 Chris Evans 1
Tyler Boyd 1 Defensive 1
Defensive 1


And now the Rams.

LA First
Scorer (Any)
Count LA First
Scorer (TD)
Count
Matt Gay 8 Cooper Kupp 4
Cooper Kupp 3 Van Jefferson 4
Odell Beckham 2 Sony Michel 3
Tyler Higbee 2 Tyler Higbee 3
Van Jefferson 2 Odell Beckham 2
Sony Michel 1 Darrell Henderson 2
Darrell Henderson 1 Kendall Blanton 1
Robert Woods 1 Robert Woods 1


Combined with the angle of the Rams starting off hotter than the Bengals and the early field goal trends, we can also look to bet the first score overall to be a Rams field goal (+350).

The Rams' first score to be a field goal is +145, as well, odds that imply a 40.8% chance. In their 20 games, they started 8 times with a field goal (40.0%), so we're not far off. It's a better bet than their first score to be a touchdown (-210).

I know I'm honing in on the field goal angle here, but the team to score the first field goal is beatable. The Rams are -114.

What about first touchdown scorer numbers?

First Touchdown
Scorer
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Odds
First Touchdown
Scorer
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Odds
Cooper Kupp +490 Cam Akers +650
Ja'Marr Chase +800 Joe Mixon +850
Odell Beckham +900 Tee Higgins +1200
Tyler Boyd +1200 Sony Michel +1300
Kendall Blanton +1500 Tyler Higbee +1500
Van Jefferson +1600 Samaje Perine +2100
C.J. Uzomah +2400 Drew Sample +2400
Los Angeles Rams D/ST +2900 Ben Skowronek +2900
Cincinnati D/ST +3100 Matthew Stafford +3400
Joe Burrow +3400 Brandon Powell +4300
Chris Evans +5000 Trent Taylor +5000
Brycen Hopkins +5000 Mitchell Wilcox +6000
No Touchdown Scored +10000 Mike Thomas +10000
Jake Funk +10000 Buddy Howell +10000


Overall, the Rams have a 58.6% pass rate in the red zone (above the NFL average of 53.8%), and the Bengals are at 56.7%.

In the first half before the two-minute warning, the Rams' red zone pass rate spikes to 62.1% (the NFL average drops to 51.0% with these parameters). The Bengals' mark falls to 52.5%.

Combined with the early Rams preference overall, we should look to the pass-catchers for the first score.

The odds are there for Cooper Kupp (+490), and a big return is available for Van Jefferson (+1600), who has kicked off the touchdown scoring in as many games (4) as Kupp has this season.

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