Super Bowl LVI: Coin Toss, Kick Deferral, and First Score Trends for the Rams and Bengals

There is no shortage of props to bet on at NFL odds for Super Bowl LVI, ranging from coin toss results to, well, there are a lot of them.

A particularly enticing angle for each Super Bowl is, yes, the coin toss (tails is -104, by the way), but also first-score and early-game data.

So I wanted to dig into these trends and see what angles we should play for this weekend.

What stands out?

Coin Toss and Early-Game Data

Here are some coin toss and early-score trends for the Cincinnati Bengals.

And for the Los Angeles Rams.

Here are the combined trends.

Last year, we saw some trends that suggested that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would get the ball first, but this year, it's going to come down to the coin toss.

Both teams should be expected to defer, and then from there, we're looking only at early-down offensive success.

The Rams have been the better team early in games, and that's evidenced by their first-quarter Net Expected Points (NEP).

numberFire's expected points model has the Rams ranked 15th in the NFL in Offensive NEP per play (0.09) in the first quarter. The Bengals (-0.05) are 29th.

In terms of success rate, the Bengals (38.4%) are a tick worse at 30th; the Rams' mark of 49.0% vaults them to 7th.

That should draw us more toward the Rams to score first, which is -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Los Angeles to lead at the end of the first quarter is -152, as well, and Rams -0.5 at the end of the first is +112.

The result of the first drive is an interesting market, too.

Of the combined 40 games between these two, 10 of these teams' first drives ended in a field goal attempt, suggesting odds of around +300, so +440 is enticing.

And 19 of the 40 opening drives ended in a punt, so there's not enough value on a punt at -125 to recommend.

First Scorer Data

Here's a closer look at the data on who scored first for each team. This isn't meant to be predictive, per se, but rather to show the dispersion of first scores and touchdowns.

Let's start with the Bengals.

And now the Rams.

Combined with the angle of the Rams starting off hotter than the Bengals and the early field goal trends, we can also look to bet the first score overall to be a Rams field goal (+350).

The Rams' first score to be a field goal is +145, as well, odds that imply a 40.8% chance. In their 20 games, they started 8 times with a field goal (40.0%), so we're not far off. It's a better bet than their first score to be a touchdown (-210).

I know I'm honing in on the field goal angle here, but the team to score the first field goal is beatable. The Rams are -114.

What about first touchdown scorer numbers?

Overall, the Rams have a 58.6% pass rate in the red zone (above the NFL average of 53.8%), and the Bengals are at 56.7%.

In the first half before the two-minute warning, the Rams' red zone pass rate spikes to 62.1% (the NFL average drops to 51.0% with these parameters). The Bengals' mark falls to 52.5%.

Combined with the early Rams preference overall, we should look to the pass-catchers for the first score.

The odds are there for Cooper Kupp (+490), and a big return is available for Van Jefferson (+1600), who has kicked off the touchdown scoring in as many games (4) as Kupp has this season.