The Favorites -- Spain
As the saying goes, everything ends badly, or else it wouldn’t end.
Such was Spain’s time as world and European champions after La Roja was hammered by Holland and Chile by a combined 7-1 scoreline in back-to-back group games in Brazil 2014 before falling meekly to Italy in the Euro 2016 Round of 16 in Vicente del Bosque’s final game in charge.
But while the current squad mirrors the one that suffered disappointment in France, the feel around this Spanish side could not be more different. After cruising through qualifying with a near-perfect record and a +33 goal differential, Julen Lopetegui and Co. are one of the favorites to lift the trophy at Luzhniki Stadium on July 15, as the Iberian giants sit behind only Brazil in our power rankings.
Few squads in the tournament are as talented, as deep or as experienced, and with an in-form Andres Iniesta pulling the strings in midfield, a number of versatile options on the flanks and arguably the world’s best goalkeeper in David de Gea at the back, there appear to be few chinks in the armor of the latest Spanish footballing armada to take the world stage.
Team of Intrigue -- Morocco
When the Atlas Lions were drawn in a CAF qualifying group with traditional power Cote D’Ivoire, most gave them little chance to advance to Russia.
Yet behind Juventus centerback Medhi Benatia, the West African nation not only topped the group to reach their first World Cup since 1998, but they didn’t concede a single goal in the process.
Their defensive solidity will be heavily tested against their neighbors from across the Strait of Gibraltar, but the confidence two-time African Cup of Nations-winning manager Herve Renard has instilled shouldn’t be underestimated, and they make for an enticing bet to advance out of Group B.
Star Watch -- Cristiano Ronaldo
CR7 may be the obvious choice here, but he’s certainly a worthy one.
The face of world soccer for well over a decade, Ronaldo has long been La Seleccion’s all-time leading goal-scorer (81) and cap-winner (149 appearances), and he holds the distinction of captaining Portugal to their first ever major tournament victory after the success of Euro 2016.
All that’s left now is a World Cup crown for the 33-year old in what will likely be the five-time Ballon D’Or winner’s last summer fling in the red and green. A title is unlikely -- according to our metrics, Portugal have just a 2% chance of being the last team standing -- but if the world’s most famous sports personality is firing on all cylinders, a run to the quarterfinals isn’t out of the question.
Match In Focus
Spain vs. Portugal -- June 15, Sochi
The all-Iberian affair on Matchday 2 might not mean much in terms of who advances -- our metrics have both Spain and Portugal moving on comfortably -- but it’ll provide a crucial first look at what the winners of the last three Euros have to offer this time around.
Spain has gotten the better of their Portuguese neighbors in their last two competitive meetings, though both the 1-0 Round-of-16 win in South Africa in 2010 and the penalty shootout victory in the Euro quarterfinals in Ukraine in 2012 could’ve gone either way. Expect another tense, tight affair on the Black Sea this time around.
What Lies Ahead
Our projections have the not-so-intimidating pair of Russia and Uruguay lying in wait for the advancing sides in Group B, so while you might be able to reserve two spots in the quarterfinals for the Iberian Peninsula, the likes of France and Argentina could make life difficult in the following round.
numberFire Projections
Spain -- 76.58% to top group, 94.64% to advance
Portugal -- 16% to top group, 62.42% to advance
Morocco -- 4.67% to top group, 26.62% to advance
Iran -- 2.75% to top group, 16.30% to advance