The Favorites -- France
After falling at the final hurdle on home soil in Euro 2016, Les Bleus head to Russia on a mission to go one step further, and they’ve got the squad -- and the draw -- to make that dream a reality.
Featuring a 23-man roster that most nations would swap for in an instant, the 1998 world champions had a fairly easy time topping a qualifying group that featured Sweden and Holland and are heavy favorites to do the same this summer in Group C.
While their defense doesn’t look as stout on paper -- starting center-back Laurent Koscielny will miss out through injury, while fullback Benjamin Mendy is in the squad but still recovering from an ACL tear -- the sum of the parts has been strong, as only five teams allowed fewer goals than Didier Deschamps’ side in qualifying.
But even if the defense lapses, an attack that boasts Euro 2016 Golden Boot and Golden Ball winner Antoine Griezmann, wunderkinds Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele and old standby Olivier Giroud should find ways to outscore the opposition -- as long as Deschamps lets them off the leash.
While our projections see France as the fifth-most likely to be the last team standing, only Brazil and Spain have better odds of reaching the semifinals, a target that feels very attainable for a squad of this caliber.
Team of Intrigue -- Australia
Anytime a manager steps down one week after qualifying for a World Cup, eyebrows tend to raise, though in the case of the Socceroos’ Ange Postecoglou, the announcement was less of a shock than you might expect after four tumultuous years in charge.
Fans had always been divided on Postecoglou’s wide-open attacking approach, so naturally, the Australian FA appointed a successor, veteran Bert van Marwijk, who has a much more pragmatic view of the game.
In a twist, however, the results since the 66-year old Dutchman took charge in late January haven’t reflected that defense-first perception. The Aussies shipped four goals to Norway in the former Holland gaffer’s first match in charge, only to draw nil-nil with Colombia three days later and then hammer the Czech Republic 4-0 on June 1.
With that latest result in mind, it appears van Marwijk’s tactics are starting to resonate with a group full of players who mainly ply their trade in the A-League or the lower flights of Europe.
If that’s the case, then perhaps our estimation of the Socceroos’ slim chances of advancement should be re-examined.
Star Watch -- Christian Eriksen
There are a number of players who head to Russia with the burden of carrying their nation’s hopes on their shoulders, though few are as talismanic -- or have as much responsibility on the pitch -- as the 26-year old Danish No. 10.
Exhibit A: In qualifying, Eriksen scored eight times in 10 matches, with each of the Danes’ six wins coinciding with at least one goal from the Tottenham midfielder, and that doesn’t include his hat-trick in Denmark’s 5-1 second-leg playoff demolition of Ireland to clinch their spot in Russia.
Exhibit B: In the side’s two group stage defeats -- a 1-0 home loss to Montenegro and a 3-2 defeat at Poland -- Eriksen was kept off the scoresheet.
Luckily for Denmark, the pride of Middelfart (no, seriously) is in-form after another season for Spurs that saw him hit double-digits for goals and assists, but he’ll need to be at his best to give hope to a country featuring in their first major tournament since Euro 2012.
Match In Focus
Australia vs. Peru -- June 26, Sochi
Most would see this as the Group C undercard to the France-Denmark battle taking place in Moscow at the same time, but this match could have huge implications on who advances as group runners-up.
Peru might not be the most-fancied side, but the latest FIFA rankings have them pegged 12th in the world, plus you don’t beat out Chile, the two-time reigning Copa America champions, for the final CONMEBOL qualifying spot if you don’t have quality.
As La Blanquirroja haven’t reached a World Cup for 36 years, you know they’ll be eager to extend their stay on this stage as long as possible, and a win over the Socceroos plus help elsewhere could be enough to see them on. Plus, Peru got a recent boost with striker Paolo Guerrero's suspension being overturned, and he'll captain them in the World Cup.
What Lies Ahead
Winning Group C is imperative, as the top-side’s road to the semis on the upper-left side of the bracket will likely be much smoother than the upper-right, the destination of the group’s second-place side. Would you rather play Croatia and Portugal on the road to the semifinals. Or Argentina and Spain?
That’s what we thought.
numberFire Projections
France -- 62% to top group, 87.79% to advance
Denmark -- 25.61% to top group, 65.49% to advance
Peru -- 9.84% to top group, 34.59% to advance
Australia -- 2.55% to top group, 12.13% to advance