Group D Favorites -- Argentina

Four years removed from coming one Mario Goetze extra-time goal away from a third World Cup title, La Albiceleste enter Russia 2018 as a popular choice to keep playing well into July.

They still feature the game’s greatest player in Lionel Messi, who, despite turning 31 during the tournament, is still at the very height of his powers, and they boast a wealth of other attackers alongside him that make targeting the Barcelona star a non-option for the opposition.

And yet…

There’s a reason Argentina is ranked a modest 13th in our power rankings.

Qualification out of CONMEBOL was a rocky affair and wasn’t secured until the final day of the process, with three different coaches taking charge at one point or another in this past cycle. The key men in defense and midfield are starting to age, and with starting goaltender Sergio Romero ruled out with a knee injury, there’s uncertainty between the sticks.

Still, Messi is Messi, and with the little magician in the fold, the South American giants have reached the quarterfinals or beyond in each of the last three World Cups while facing similar question marks around the squad.

It’s difficult to not see them doing so again, though anything further may be a bridge too far.

Team of Intrigue -- Croatia

Despite finishing second to Iceland in their UEFA qualifying group, the Vatreni (aka, “The Blazers”) enter Russia as a much more fancied side than their North Atlantic counterparts, with our metrics giving Croatia nearly as much chance to move on as we do the Argentines.

The reason? Few national teams have the midfield dynamism that Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic and Barca’s Ivan Rakitic offer, and many wish they had the likes of Juventus’ Mario Mandzukic and Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic up top.

Even though they’ve been handed a difficult group, Zlatko Dalic’s side will be looking to rebound after early exits in their last two major tournaments, and the strength and depth of their squad should give them ample opportunity to do so.

If they can consistently play like they did in a 4-1 UEFA playoff thumping of Greece in Zagreb this November, watch out.

Star Watch -- Gylfi Sigurdsson

The entire population of Iceland – all 350,000 of them – have had their fingers permanently crossed since March 10.

That afternoon, Sigurdsson, the brightest of a Golden Generation of Icelandic soccer stars that led the Vikings to their shock run to the quarterfinals of Euro 2016, went down with a knee injury in Everton’s 2-0 Premier League win over Brighton.

Ruled out for the rest of the Toffees’ season, the 28-year old has since faced an uphill battle for fitness before his country takes to the World Cup stage for the first time on June 16 against Argentina in Moscow.

The 28-year old’s importance to the Iceland squad is undeniable -- in qualifying, he led the team in scoring from midfield while serving as their chief offensive creator and group leader -- and if he’s unable to contribute for Heimir Hallgrimsson's side this summer, it’d be a real blow to one of the feel-good stories in the sport in recent memory.

But if he can return in time -- even at less than 100% -- then count out these debutantes at your own peril.

Match In Focus

Argentina vs. Nigeria -- June 21, Nizhny Novgorod

If Matchday 2’s contest between these sides is anything like their last encounter, this could very well be the most entertaining match of the group stage.

With the top spot in Group F on the line in Porto Alegre in 2014, Leo Messi and Ahmed Musa traded goals just moments apart in the opening four minutes before each scored again on either side of halftime. A Marcos Rojo tally minutes after Musa’s equalizer finished the scoring at 3-2 in favor of the Argentines, but the action remained non-stop, with defending entirely optional from the first whistle.

There’s no guarantees we’ll have similar fireworks this time around, especially as Nigeria have become a more conservative side with elder statesman Gernot Rohr manning the touchline.

But the Super Eagles -- who qualified for Russia 2018 earlier than any other African side -- can still counter-attack with the best in the world, and in a match that should see Argentina have the majority of possession, we could be in for a replay of the end-to-end affair from four years ago.

What Lies Ahead

Topping Group D would bode well in the short term -- a potential Round-of-16 date with Denmark wouldn’t be the most daunting assignment -- but the road to the final from there could feature Spain and then Germany. Yikes.

Finishing second could mean a difficult matchup with France in the opening knockout stage but potentially a far easier quarterfinal opponent in Portugal or Uruguay. Either way, life won’t be easy for the two sides advancing out of this tournament’s version of the Group of Death.

numberFire Projections

Argentina -- 46.81% to top group, 80.34% to advance

Croatia -- 41.62% to top group, 78.5% to advance

Iceland -- 6.97% to top group, 24.32% to advance

Nigeria -- 4.6% to top group, 16.84% to advance