Drafting Randall Cobb relies on a leap of faith.
Cobb's Reception NEP per catch from 2011 to 2014 was 1.23, which would have been a top-20 type of rate last year. In 2015 and 2016 it fell to 0.88. His 2016 rate was 0.90, which ranked 80th among 92 receivers with at least 50 targets.
Part of that had to do with a yards at the catch per reception average of 4.25 yards, which ranked between tight ends Lance Kendricks and Will Tye. It was 4.82 in 2015. In 2013 and 2014, it was above 7.00.
But there's a chance that Cobb sees more volume this year, and that's why we project him as the WR31 in PPR formats (his ADP is WR40, lowest since 2012).
Davante Adams almost doubled his expected touchdown mark in 2017 and was nearly a cut candidate in the offseason, but he's still above Cobb on the depth chart. Meanwhile Martellus Bennett is coming off a career year.
But with just an eighth-round cost, Cobb's upside in this offense (he was the WR16 in 2012, WR8 in 2014, and WR25 in 2015) makes him worth a bounceback flier.