The middle tier of the league is littered with disappointment, as for many of these teams, the 2017 season looked promising at one point or another.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec. | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Houston Texans | -3.93 | 4-11 | 0.0% | 19 | 24 | -3 |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.53 | 4-11 | 0.0% | 14 | 28 | +1 |
| 20 | Denver Broncos | -3.18 | 5-10 | 0.0% | 31 | 4 | -2 |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | -3.06 | 8-7 | 0.0% | 11 | 30 | +2 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | -2.06 | 7-8 | 0.0% | 30 | 6 | +2 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | -1.94 | 8-7 | 0.0% | 17 | 18 | -1 |
| 16 | Chicago Bears | -1.31 | 5-10 | 0.0% | 26 | 9 | +1 |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers | -0.97 | 7-8 | 0.0% | 12 | 22 | 0 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 1.67 | 9-6 | 71.0% | 10 | 17 | -2 |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1.68 | 9-6 | 100.0% | 6 | 25 | 0 |
Houston, for example, surged as high as No. 5 in the ratings after Week 6 and stayed in the top 10 through Week 8, thanks in large part to the phenomenal play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. In addition to being one of the most exciting players in the league, Watson finally gave the solid Texans' defense some offensive support, something that had been severely lacking in recent seasons.
Among quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs this season, Watson is ninth in Passing NEP per drop back and eighth in Passing Success Rate. Week 8 turned out to be the last time we would see him play this year, as an ACL tear ended his season and effectively did the same to the Texans, who have seen their nERD rating plummet since.
| Team | Current nERD | nERD After Week 8 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -6.44 | 1.94 | -8.38 |
| Houston Texans | -3.93 | 4.35 | -8.28 |
| Denver Broncos | -3.18 | 4.32 | -7.5 |
| New York Giants | -6.42 | -1.32 | -5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | -0.97 | 3.06 | -4.03 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -3.06 | 0.88 | -3.94 |
Tampa Bay and Denver have also seen dramatic falls. Denver topped the rankings after Week 3, and the Buccaneers made it to fourth the following week. The Bucs' time in the upper echelon did not last long, as they fell all the way to 22nd in the next ratings and have not been higher than 21st at any point since then.
The Broncos’ decline was more gradual, but they had a below-average rating by Week 11.
Dallas, Atlanta and Green Bay have all undershot preseason expectations, as this group ranked second, third and fourth, respectively, in our preseason ratings.