| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Super Bowl Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | New York Giants | -2.93 | 5-11 | 0.0% | 16 | 25 | -1 |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.63 | 5-11 | 0.0% | 13 | 27 | +1 |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | -1.82 | 7-9 | 0.0% | 10 | 30 | -1 |
| 19 | Green Bay Packers | -1.51 | 6-9-1 | 0.0% | 9 | 29 | -3 |
| 18 | Tennessee Titans | -0.66 | 9-7 | 0.0% | 20 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | -0.62 | 7-9 | 0.0% | 15 | 21 | +3 |
| 16 | Denver Broncos | 0.7 | 6-10 | 0.0% | 22 | 7 | -2 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 1.27 | 7-8-1 | 0.0% | 23 | 4 | -2 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.73 | 9-7 | 2.4% | 12 | 17 | +3 |
| 13 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.75 | 10-6 | 1.5% | 18 | 8 | +2 |
Biggest surprise: Cleveland Browns (29)
Only two teams beat their preseason projection by more than Cleveland, which won seven games after combining to win four in its last three seasons. The Browns had a very strong defense and coupled that with an offense that got much stronger as the year went on.
From Week 1 to Week 8, the Browns ranked 29th in yards per play (4.9) but after that, they led the league by averaging 6.9 behind Baker Mayfield and the gang.
Biggest disappointment: Philadelphia Eagles (1)
The Philadelphia Eagles went from first to a fight for their playoff lives. Thanks to an improbable finish fueled by Nick Foles, their Super Bowl defense will continue for at least another week, but the 2018 iteration of the team pales in comparison to 2017.
While they were the victim of some rotten turnover luck (a margin of minus six), they were also out-gained by their opposition. They still managed to finish with a positive point differential thanks to strong performances on third down and in the red zone, but struggling on first and second down, and relying on success afterwards is hardly a sustainable means of success.