| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Super Bowl Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Arizona Cardinals | -12.39 | 3-13 | 0.0% | 32 | 18 | 0 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | -11.17 | 7-9 | 0.0% | 26 | 32 | 0 |
| 30 | New York Jets | -10.15 | 4-12 | 0.0% | 30 | 23 | 0 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | -9.66 | 4-12 | 0.0% | 27 | 31 | 0 |
| 28 | Washington Redskins | -6.49 | 7-9 | 0.0% | 28 | 19 | -2 |
| 27 | San Francisco 49ers | -6.21 | 4-12 | 0.0% | 24 | 26 | 1 |
| 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.18 | 5-11 | 0.0% | 31 | 9 | -3 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | -4.4 | 6-10 | 0.0% | 21 | 22 | -1 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -3.89 | 6-10 | 0.0% | 19 | 24 | +3 |
| 23 | Buffalo Bills | -3.48 | 6-10 | 0.0% | 29 | 5 | +2 |
Biggest Surprise: Buffalo Bills (Preseason Rank: 31)
Perhaps it's damning with faint praise, but by not being one of the worst teams in the league, the Bills take home the banner as this section's most pleasant surprise. Our models projected Buffalo to rank 31st in the league heading into the season, and while its offense certainly looked the part, a terrific effort on defense brought the Bills closer to the middle of the pack than the bottom.
Biggest Disappointments: San Francisco 49ers (15) and Arizona Cardinals (20)
The two teams that underachieved the most relative to preseason projections both call the NFC West home. San Francisco could at least use the excuse of Jimmy Garoppolo's September injury to explain some of its disappointing play, while Arizona was doomed by atrocious offense.
The Cardinals actually became the first team since the 2011 Jaguars to go all season without posting a team passer rating of at least 90 in a game, an especially troubling failure considering the league average was 92.9 (their high-water mark came in Week 4 with a rating of 87.1). In terms of Adjusted Net Yards per Dropback relative to average, only three passers since the merger had a worse year than rookie Josh Rosen (minimum 300 attempts).