NFL

The 3 Best Bets to Win Super Bowl LIII Based on numberFire's Projections

Jason Schandl  —  @JasonSchandl Jan 2nd, 2019
With Kansas City having locked up the top seed in the AFC, what do our projections say about the betting value for Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs?

While betting on the future Super Bowl champion is something you can start looking at as early as February most years, things get a lot more clear once we're through Week 17.

Not only do we not have to deal with any contingencies of trying to work out the odds of a team makes the playoffs, but we even have a good idea of what a team's schedule will look like, and most importantly, how many games they will need to win.

The FanDuel Sportsbook has odds set for each playoff team to win the Super Bowl. Unsurprisingly, the four bye week teams are the heaviest favorites by far, each with an implied probability in the double-digits, while the best for a team that has to play in the wild card round is 9.1%.

"Most likely" doesn't always means "best bet," though. For example, oddsmakers have the New Orleans Saints as heavy favorites to win it all, but our projections actually suggest that they are the worst bet on the board.

Our Team Power Rankings page has projections for each team's chances of going all the way, and by comparing these projections to the odds, we can identify the best bets to win Super Bowl LIII.

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