PGA Betting Guide to Specials and Props for the PGA Championship
Earlier this week our own Brandon Gdula covered the outright betting options for the PGA Championship from the top of the market to the long shots. This space will cover every other bet you can make on FanDuel Sportsbook this week.
Whereas outright bets only pay out if the golfer wins the event, specials and props can keep bettors interested all the way through the end of the tournament. While plenty of people were pumped for Tiger Woods to win the Masters, how many people were sweating Tony Finau's putt on the 72nd hole to close out a top 5 finish? Anyone who read this betting guide, that's who!
Let's dive into these and see what jumps off the page.
Finishing Position
In addition to wagering on the outright winners, we can also bet on golfers to finish Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, and Top 40. To identify who posts a strong value for one of these bets, it is helpful to establish a baseline for any golfer in play in the field. We do that with the favorite, the longest reasonably realistic odds, and the median of the two.
Brooks Koepka has climbed to the top of the outright market at 9.5/1. A handful of golfers are at 450/1, and we'll use former Masters champ Danny Willett as our baseline test for the longest shots that are in play (quite a few guys are well beyond these odds and even up to 1000/1, but their true win odds are effectively 0 and it's hardly worth weighing down the sample). There are a full 100 golfers between Koepka's odds and Willett's, and the exact middle point between them is Byeong-Hun An at 180/1. He'll be our median.
Taking these three golfers' outright odds and dividing them by their wins in each finishing position can give us their value quotient. Measuring other golfers against this value quotient will tell us if they are good values or bad relative to our baseline. We are looking for a quotient as close to 1.00 as possible.
| Golfer | Outright Odds | Finishing Position | Odds | Value Quotient |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Koepka | 950 | Top 5 | +290 | 0.31 |
| Top 10 | +148 | 0.16 | ||
| Top 20 | -138 | -0.15 | ||
| Top 30 | -260 | -0.27 | ||
| Top 40 | -390 | -0.41 | ||
| Byeong-Hun An | 18000 | Top 5 | +3600 | 0.20 |
| Top 10 | +1600 | 0.09 | ||
| Top 20 | +550 | 0.03 | ||
| Top 30 | +340 | 0.02 | ||
| Top 40 | +230 | 0.01 | ||
| Danny Willett | 45000 | Top 5 | +6500 | 0.14 |
| Top 10 | +2700 | 0.06 | ||
| Top 20 | +1160 | 0.03 | ||
| Top 30 | +650 | 0.01 | ||
| Top 40 | +380 | 0.01 |
Koepka's odds for finishing position have not caught up to his being the outright favorite, as he is actually longer odds than Dustin Johnson for each of the ranges. The defending champion is a better top 5 and top 10 bet than the median and longshot, but the odds for top 20 and further are too steep to be worth the risk given the inherent variance in golf.
Top 5
Rickie Fowler (+560) - Fowler offers a value quotient of 0.28, a solid mark compared to the favorite's 0.30. Fowler is sixth in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds according to Fantasy National Golf Club, and he has the ability to gain against any field with his putter. He doesn't have elite distance but he is 30th so far this year and rates out at 24th in total driving.
Eddie Pepperell (+3900) - Pepperell engenders a lot of good faith with his hilarious European Tour videos and great Twitter account, but he also has top end ability and isn't scared of getting in the mix with the best players in the world. He was T6 at The Open Championship last year, and this year has a T3 at the PLAYERS stateside and comes in off a T2 at the Betfred British Masters on the European Tour. Recent high end finishes and a 0.38 value quotient make him a terrific value for a top 5 finish.
Top 10
Jason Day (+310) - At 22/1, Day offers a value quotient of 0.14, the third highest behind only Koepka and Pepperell. Important: Day has finished inside the top 10 at the PGA Championship four times in the last six years.
Eddie Pepperell (+2000) - Another bargain for Eddie, as he seems to be getting action on the outright side and with the specials slower to update/adapt. His numbers may move by Wednesday afternoon.
Top 20
Rickie Fowler (+130) - Rickie pops here again with longer top 20 odds than the other golfers at 20/1 and even longer than Day at 22/1. He has the best value quotient in the field at 6.5 basis points.
Hideki Matsuyama (+215) - Matsuyama has the ballstriking to contend and the putter to keep him from winning. A top 20 makes sense, and he offers nice value with longer odds than four golfers with worse outright odds and a quotient of 5.7 basis points.
Regions
An American has won in each of the four Tour visits to Bethpage Black, so ignore the top American bets and just bet your favorite plays to win outright rather than pay the premium to cut out the rest of the field. Some guys are almost cut in half to beat a still sizable sample of golfers.
Top Australian Player
Jason Day (+140) - Day's track record at the PGA Championship is noted above, and he finished T4 at the 2016 Barclays, the last time Bethpage hosted an event (with fellow Aussie Adam Scott). Scott is the only challenger in this group at +230, but ultimately his odds aren't quite fat enough to get off Day.
Top South African Player
Brandon Stone (+1100) - Everyone in this group could miss the cut, and at least Stone has a win in the past year (at the Scottish Open on the European Tour). He would have cashed this bet last year with a T12 finish. Favorite Louis Oosthuizen (+195) is far too volatile to swallow that short of odds, and no one between him and Stone is inspiring at short odds.
Top South Korean Player
Byeong-Hun An (+300) - With just four guys to beat, An has bar far the most distance (13th overall on Tour this year), and he is also the best around the green player (1st on Tour in strokes gained: around the green so far this year).
