European Tour Betting Guide: D+D REAL Czech Masters

The European Tour gets back underway with the D+D REAL Czech Masters this weekend.

You can read up on what to expect from the course -- including the best types of golfers for Albatross Golf Resort -- in this week's detailed course primer.

Which bets stand on Golf odds?

Outrights

Lee Slattery (+4200 on FanDuel Sportsbook) - Slattery has back-to-back top-four finishes the last two years at this event. You're not going to find that kind of course history this low on the odds boards too often. He's missed only one cut in five appearances here, as well, so those most recent finishes aren't a fluke: something about this course just clicks with Lee.

Last time we saw him was a ninth at the Scottish Open after a really brutal stretch of missed cuts earlier this summer, so he may have found something in Scotland. I like to look for players who are on the upswing (see Patrick Reed last week), and Slattery coming off that top-10 finish and going back to a course he has fond memories of could be exactly what he needs to get back in contention on a Sunday.

Slattery ranks 126th on the European Tour in strokes gained: approach but does grade out 69th in par 5 scoring.

Jason Scrivener (+6500) - Scrivener has had a really solid year with his irons. He is second on the European Tour this season in strokes gained: approach and 14th in green-in-regulation percentage. He’s made three straight cuts at this event, including a top-five finish two years ago. He’s coming off back-to-back missed cuts in the Irish and Scottish Opens, but that isn’t scaring me off. Going back to 2017, he has made only one cut in six starts at those two events combined; he just doesn’t seem to do well on links tracks. Given his stellar iron play this year and solid course history, I think he’s primed for a big week and perhaps his breakthrough victory.

Zander Lombard (+12000) - The young South African has had a very volatile year. But he fits a couple of the key stats for this course that I called out in my course preview; he is 13th in strokes gained: approach on the European Tour this season and tied for 5th in total eagles. Additionally, he is seventh in green-under-regulation percentage, so we can expect him to have looks at eagle throughout the week.

Driving accuracy has been one his weaknesses this year, ranking 175th on tour and hitting less than half of his fairways, but that shouldn’t be an issue at this course with the short rough and minimal trouble off the tee. He can bomb away without consequence, and that could pump a lot of confidence into him this week.

Top-20

Kristoffer Reitan (+900) - The young Norwegian has had an up-and-down season, having missed the cut in 9 of 14 starts. But when he does make the cut, he finds his way to solid finishes, with four top-25s on the year. He ranks 13th on the European Tour this year in driving distance, so I can see a scenario where he has the driver working for him, makes an eagle or two, and plays the par 5s around -7 on his way to a top-20 finish.

Lasse Jensen (+1100) - Jensen is a journeyman playing largely on the Challenge Tour this season, but in his few starts on the European Tour, he has been impressive. He has made the cut in each of his five starts and ranks very well in par 5 scoring and strokes gained: approach (in an admittedly small sample size). He also has four eagles which ranks him fourth on the European Tour for the season in eagles per round at almost one every four rounds. He has two starts at this event and has made the cut both times. At these long odds to finish just in the top-20, Jensen feels like a fairly strong value.

Match-Up Breakdown

Thomas Pieters vs. Robert Macintyre (-108)

Pieters is the favorite in this matchup due to his stellar course history most likely, but it should be noted that his top finishes were in 2015 and 2016 when he was bursting on the scene and probably a better player than he is right now. Since then, he’s failed to live up to the hype he earned from his 2016 Ryder Cup performance and top-five finish at the 2017 Masters, and his 2019 campaign has been very disappointing with only one top-10 finish on the year at the Oman Open. At this point Pieters’ name recognition still carries a lot on the Euro Tour, but his play just has not been backing it up.

Meanwhile the underdog, Macintyre, is coming off his first start in a major where he managed a wildly impressive top-10 finish and is having a stellar rookie season in general. For the year Macintyre, ranks above Pieters in par 5 scoring and strokes gained: approach. While most golf fans would think Pieters would be the much bigger threat on par 5s, that hasn’t really been the case this year either, with Macintyre ranking a fair amount ahead of Pieters in par 5 scoring average and almost identical in eagle rate and green-under-regulation percentage.

Pick: Macintyre (-108)