European Tour Betting Preview: Porsche European Open
This week for the Porsche European Open, 10 of the world's top 100 golfers head to the Green Eagle Golf Course in Germany.
As covered in my course preview, I’ll be targeting longer hitters who can play par 5s well. With only two years of course history, there isn’t a lot to glean, but golfers who have played well here either of those years could have an edge over the large chunk of the field playing this course for the first time this week.
Where is there value on the board?
Favorites
I'd really love to just start and end my picks with the man at the top, Xander Schauffele, as he is an elite par 5 player, and I really think this course will suit him well. But at +550 to win on FanDuel Sportsbook, there just isn’t much upside to betting him. But one golfer near the top of the board offers a ton of upside.
Adria Arnaus - Arnaus is a bomber coming in with great form. He finished second at the Czech Masters a few weeks ago (another bomber's paradise), then was cut at the Scandinavian Invitation but followed that up with a T6 last week in the Alps. So the form is great, and additionally, he ranks out really well in one of the key stats I mentioned in the course preview yesterday: he is 19th on the European Tour in driving distance for the year, averaging 307.5 yards off the tee. Arnaus is already top-100 in the world, and it feels like he will continue to rise. This feels like the perfect place for him to get his maiden European Tour Victory.
Bet: Outright to Win (+2700)
Middle
Min Woo Lee - In terms of my key stats for this week, Min Woo takes the cake. He is first on the tour this year in driving distance, averaging 322.1 yards off the tee, which leads over second place by an astounding 6.7 yards. Similarly, he ranks out well in par 5 scoring (4.55), good enough for 11th on the tour this year. Min Woo has missed the cut in his last two events, but he did manage to gain about 0.5 strokes per round off the tee last week for the first two rounds and was 17th in driving distance, showing that his driver was not the issue. I’ll bet on the driver being a big asset this week and Min Woo finding his way to the weekend and doing some damage.
Bet: Top-10 Finish (+1100)
Longshots
Zander Lombard - Lombard fits the long hitting prototype who will potentially play well at this course. Considering his fifth place at this event two years back, he seems to like the course as well. He ranks 24th on the tour this year in driving distance and is coming in with solid form, having made three straight cuts. Lombard has shown to be a volatile player throughout this year, missing six straight cuts at one point earlier this year. However, he seems to be on the rise at the moment, so he is an interesting longshot who seems to be in a groove at a place he has shown he knows how to play in the past.
Bet: Top-20 Finish (+500)
Kristoffer Reitan - I tipped Reitan at the Czech Masters for a top-20 because he could bomb away and not worry about hitting fairways. This week isn’t quite the same situation with a fair amount of trouble to be found off the tee at this course, but Reitan still shapes up as a good value in the betting market. His length will still be an asset: he is 16th in driving distance on European Tour and 32nd in par 5 scoring. He just needs to keep it in the fairways. Similar to Min Woo, the stats are too good to look past for this course.
Bet: Top-20 Finish (+850)
