PGA Betting Guide for the RSM Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the RSM Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
In the final official event of the swing season, the PGA Tour heads to Sea Island, Georgia where golfers will face two fairly unique courses. The Seaside and Plantation courses are both short but can be affected by windy conditions, especially the coastal Seaside. We'll be looking for accuracy over power, and an ability to either sink some pressure putts or knock it so close that the birdies are gimmes.
For more info on Sea Island Golf Club and its Seaside and Plantation courses, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Webb Simpson (+900) - While not our prototypical lead man, Simpson plays the part quite well this week as the favorite in Georgia. He has prospered throughout his career in this part of the country especially, and even at single-digit odds, he is a fair play this week given his stature relative to the field. Webb is the No. 12 ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking, and the only other man inside the top 30 is Matt Kuchar (+2000) at No. 22. He last hoisted hardware at the 2018 PLAYERS, but even without a win in the 2018-19 season, he was remarkably consistent with a string of made cuts dating back to his T5 at Augusta.
Kevin Kisner (+2200) - These odds are shorter than we'd like, but they indicate just how well Kisner fits here. He attended college in Georgia and is a prior RSM winner, and his game makes a ton of sense even though the recent form has been less than ideal. After closing the season with back-to-back top-10s at the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship, Kinser has not teed it up on U.S. soil since then, having opted to start his 2019-20 campaign in Japan at the ZOZO. In addition to the win in fall 2015, he has three other top-10s here, including T7 last year. Kisner will be a solid choice on the live line after his first round on Seaside. With an early tee time scheduled for Friday on the Plantation course, he could make a big move and be the favorite heading into the weekend.
Value Spots
Adam Hadwin (+2700) - The recently named Captain's Pick for the International squad in the President's Cup, Hadwin fits the mold of a solid iron player and putter who just needs to get hot with one to start piling up birdies. If both get going, he'll be knocking on the door just like he was in his two top-5 finishes to start the season.
Brian Gay (+4500) - Gay posted another solid finish last week with a T14 at the Mayakoba, his fourth top-25 of the young season. He has strong course form as well, having finished T23 and 3rd the last two years, with a T4 back in the 2013-14 season prior to Plantation joining the rotation. He also has quality finishes in the comp courses we covered in the primer -- notably a win at the Desert Classic in 2013 and back-to-back top-10s at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am the last two years.
Long Shots
Joel Dahmen (+6500) - Dahmen is the type of player who can catch fire and carry momentum over a few tournaments before fizzling out. Looking back over his career, he has clustered strong finishes together each time he's gotten on a roll. The T9 at the Shriners portended his T6 last week, and another solid week could be in store. He's far from a good putter but has done well on overseeded bermuda in the past, particularly in his runner-up finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last year and his T12 at the PLAYERS a few weeks earlier. Dahmen gets an early shot at the Plantation Course as one of the first groups to go off on Thursday morning.
Michael Thompson (+15000) - Way down the board we find Thompson, who shined last swing season into January but has been mostly anonymous since then save a T10 at Harbour Town. He survived that coastal layout and had back-to-back top-20s at the RSM before a missed cut last year. He pops as a comp course specialist after banking top-10s at both the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Desert Classic last year, and over the past few years has done his best on overseeded bermuda greens.
